What happened last time? › Yield curve
What happens when the 10-year yield falls below the 3-month yield?
It has happened 16 times since 1982. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 10 of 15 times, with a median move of +11.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +12.5%, up 80% of the time.
10y minus 3m Treasury below 0. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.5% 56% up · n 16 · normal +1.3% | +11.5% 67% up · n 15 · normal +12.5% | +24.7% 64% up · n 14 · normal +36.0% |
| Gold | -0.9% 38% up · n 16 · normal +0.1% | +8.5% 67% up · n 15 · normal +4.1% | +21.9% 64% up · n 14 · normal +11.2% |
| Oil | -1.1% 38% up · n 16 · normal +0.4% | -2.2% 40% up · n 15 · normal +1.1% | +0.4% 50% up · n 14 · normal +8.7% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.17 pts 38% up · n 16 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.40 pts 40% up · n 15 · normal -0.20 pts | -1.34 pts 29% up · n 14 · normal -0.57 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.04 pts 50% up · n 16 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.41 pts 47% up · n 15 · normal -0.01 pts | -1.49 pts 29% up · n 14 · normal -0.27 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 40% up · n 15 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.30 pts 73% up · n 15 · normal -0.30 pts | +1.80 pts 71% up · n 14 · normal -1.00 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-10-16 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-02-26 · true for 85 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 2022-10-18 · true for 538 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 2020-01-31 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 2019-05-13 · true for 99 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.1%
- 2019-03-22 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.7%
- 2007-07-20 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.8%
- 2006-07-17 · true for 217 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.5%
- 2006-01-17 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.5%
- 2000-07-07 · true for 135 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.5%
- 2000-04-07 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -25.6%
- 1998-09-10 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.9%
- 1989-10-27 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.1%
- 1989-05-22 · true for 60 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.3%
- 1989-03-27 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +17.5%
- 1982-02-01 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.4%
- 16 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.