What happened last time?

232 market situations, and what came next each time they happened: stocks, gold, oil, rates, inflation and jobs, beside what happens on an ordinary day. Every number comes from market history back to the 1880s. US economic data is used as it was first published, on the day it came out; the euro area, UK and Japan series are revised figures with an estimated release day, and each answer says so where they are used.

Stock markets

• What happens after the S&P 500 falls 10% in a month?
• What happens after the S&P 500 falls 5% in a week?
• What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
• What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
• What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
• What happens when the S&P 500 hits an all-time high?
• What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
• What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?
• What happens after the Dow falls 5% in a week?
• What happens after the Dow enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
• What happens after the Dow falls 30% from its high?
• What happens after the Dow rises 20% in three months?
• What happens when the Dow hits an all-time high?
• What happens when the Dow is 10% below its 200-day average?
• What happens after the Nasdaq falls 10% in a month?
• What happens after the Nasdaq falls 5% in a week?
• What happens after the Nasdaq enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
• What happens after the Nasdaq falls 30% from its high?
• What happens after the Nasdaq rises 20% in three months?
• What happens when the Nasdaq hits an all-time high?
• What happens when the Nasdaq is 10% below its 200-day average?
• What happens after the Russell 2000 falls 10% in a month?
• What happens after the Russell 2000 falls 5% in a week?
• What happens after the Russell 2000 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
• What happens after the Russell 2000 falls 30% from its high?
• What happens after the Russell 2000 rises 20% in three months?
• What happens when the Russell 2000 hits an all-time high?
• What happens when the Russell 2000 is 10% below its 200-day average?
• What happens after the Nikkei falls 10% in a month?
• What happens after the Nikkei falls 5% in a week?
• What happens after the Nikkei enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
• What happens after the Nikkei falls 30% from its high?
• What happens after the Nikkei rises 20% in three months?
• What happens when the Nikkei hits an all-time high?
• What happens when the Nikkei is 10% below its 200-day average?
• What happens after the DAX falls 10% in a month?
• What happens after the DAX falls 5% in a week?
• What happens after the DAX enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
• What happens after the DAX falls 30% from its high?
• What happens after the DAX rises 20% in three months?
• What happens when the DAX hits an all-time high?
• What happens when the DAX is 10% below its 200-day average?
• What happens after the Hang Seng falls 10% in a month?
• What happens after the Hang Seng falls 5% in a week?
• What happens after the Hang Seng enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
• What happens after the Hang Seng falls 30% from its high?
• What happens after the Hang Seng rises 20% in three months?
• What happens when the Hang Seng hits an all-time high?
• What happens when the Hang Seng is 10% below its 200-day average?
• What happens after the S&P 500 rises 30% in a year?
• What happens after the S&P 500 falls 20% in a year?
• What happens when S&P 500 volatility is above 40%?
• What happens when the stock market is very calm (S&P 500 volatility below 8%)?
• What happens after the S&P 500 falls 50% from its all-time high?

Volatility

• What happens when the VIX is above 30?
• What happens when the VIX is above 40?
• What happens when the VIX is above 50?
• What happens when the VIX is below 12?
• What happens after the VIX doubles in a month?
• What happens when financial stress is high (St. Louis Fed index above 1)?
• What happens when financial conditions are tight (Chicago Fed NFCI above 0)?

Commodities

• What happens after oil rises 50% in a year?
• What happens after oil doubles in a year?
• What happens after oil rises 30% in three months?
• What happens after oil falls 30% in three months?
• What happens after oil falls 50% in six months?
• What happens when oil hits an all-time high?
• What happens after gold rises 50% in a year?
• What happens after gold doubles in a year?
• What happens after gold rises 30% in three months?
• What happens when gold hits an all-time high?
• What happens after silver rises 50% in a year?
• What happens after silver doubles in a year?
• What happens after silver rises 30% in three months?
• What happens after silver falls 30% in three months?
• What happens when silver hits an all-time high?
• What happens after copper rises 50% in a year?
• What happens after copper doubles in a year?
• What happens after copper rises 30% in three months?
• What happens after copper falls 30% in three months?
• What happens after copper falls 50% in six months?
• What happens when copper hits an all-time high?
• What happens after natural gas rises 50% in a year?
• What happens after natural gas doubles in a year?
• What happens after natural gas rises 30% in three months?
• What happens after natural gas falls 30% in three months?
• What happens after natural gas falls 50% in six months?
• What happens when natural gas hits an all-time high?
• What happens after Brent crude rises 50% in a year?
• What happens after Brent crude doubles in a year?
• What happens after Brent crude rises 30% in three months?
• What happens after Brent crude falls 30% in three months?
• What happens after Brent crude falls 50% in six months?
• What happens when Brent crude hits an all-time high?

Crypto

• What happens after Bitcoin falls 50% from its 1-year high?
• What happens after Bitcoin falls 75% from its all-time high?
• What happens after Bitcoin doubles in three months?
• What happens after Bitcoin falls 20% in a week?
• What happens when Bitcoin hits an all-time high?
• What happens after Ether falls 50% from its 1-year high?
• What happens after Ether falls 75% from its all-time high?
• What happens after Ether doubles in three months?
• What happens after Ether falls 20% in a week?
• What happens when Ether hits an all-time high?

Currencies

• What happens after the US dollar rises 10% in a year?
• What happens after the US dollar falls 10% in a year?
• What happens after the yen falls 20% against the dollar in a year?
• What happens after the yen rises 15% against the dollar in a year?
• What happens when the euro falls below one dollar?
• What happens after the euro falls 10% in a year?
• What happens after the pound falls 10% in three months?

Interest rates

• What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
• What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 8%?
• What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is below 2%?
• What happens after the 10-year yield rises 1 point in a year?
• What happens after the 10-year yield rises 2 points in a year?
• What happens after the 10-year yield falls 1 point in three months?
• What happens when the 2-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
• What happens when the 30-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
• What happens when mortgage rates are above 7%?
• What happens when mortgage rates are above 10%?
• What happens when mortgage rates are below 3.5%?
• What happens when the Fed funds rate is above 5%?
• What happens after the Fed raises rates 3 points in a year?
• What happens after the Fed cuts rates 2 points in a year?
• What happens when 3-month Treasury bills pay over 5%?
• What happens when real yields (10-year TIPS) are above 2%?
• What happens when real yields (10-year TIPS) are below zero?

Yield curve

• What happens when the yield curve inverts (10-year below 2-year)?
• What happens when the yield curve is deeply inverted (10-year half a point below 2-year)?
• What happens when the 10-year yield falls below the 3-month yield?
• What happens when the yield curve is steep (10-year 2.5 points above 2-year)?

Inflation

• What happens when inflation is above 3%?
• What happens when inflation is above 4%?
• What happens when inflation is above 5%?
• What happens when inflation is above 6%?
• What happens when inflation is above 8%?
• What happens when inflation is above 10%?
• What happens when inflation is below 1%?
• What happens during deflation (prices falling over a year)?
• What happens when core inflation is above 4%?
• What happens when core inflation is above 6%?
• What happens when PCE inflation is above 4%?
• What happens when 10-year breakeven inflation is above 2.5%?

Jobs

• What happens when unemployment is above 6%?
• What happens when unemployment is above 8%?
• What happens when unemployment is above 10%?
• What happens when unemployment is below 4%?
• What happens after unemployment rises 1 point in a year?
• What happens after unemployment rises half a point in six months?
• What happens when the US has fewer jobs than a year ago?
• What happens after jobless claims rise 30% in three months?
• What happens when weekly jobless claims are above 400,000?

Economy

• What happens when real GDP is smaller than a year ago?
• What happens when real GDP grows more than 5% in a year?
• What happens when industrial production is lower than a year ago?
• What happens when retail sales are lower than a year ago?
• What happens when housing starts fall 30% in a year?
• What happens when consumer sentiment is below 60?
• What happens when consumer sentiment is below 55?
• What happens when the money supply (M2) shrinks over a year?
• What happens when the money supply (M2) grows more than 10% in a year?
• What happens during a recession, as announced at the time?
• What happens during a recession (NBER dates, known only afterwards)?

Sectors

• What happens after chemicals and pharma stocks fall 20% from their high?
• What happens after chemicals and pharma stocks rise 30% in six months?
• What happens after consumer goods stocks fall 20% from their high?
• What happens after consumer goods stocks rise 30% in six months?
• What happens after energy stocks fall 20% from their high?
• What happens after energy stocks rise 30% in six months?
• What happens after bank and real estate stocks fall 20% from their high?
• What happens after bank and real estate stocks rise 30% in six months?
• What happens after food and tobacco stocks fall 20% from their high?
• What happens after food and tobacco stocks rise 30% in six months?
• What happens after industrial and transport stocks fall 20% from their high?
• What happens after industrial and transport stocks rise 30% in six months?
• What happens after mining and materials stocks fall 20% from their high?
• What happens after mining and materials stocks rise 30% in six months?
• What happens after retail stocks fall 20% from their high?
• What happens after retail stocks rise 30% in six months?
• What happens after software and services stocks fall 20% from their high?
• What happens after software and services stocks rise 30% in six months?
• What happens after tech hardware stocks fall 20% from their high?
• What happens after tech hardware stocks rise 30% in six months?
• What happens after telecom and media stocks fall 20% from their high?
• What happens after telecom and media stocks rise 30% in six months?
• What happens after utility stocks fall 20% from their high?
• What happens after utility stocks rise 30% in six months?

Events

• What happens after the Fed cuts rates?
• What happens after the Fed raises rates?
• What happens when the Fed cuts rates with no recession announced?
• What happens when the Fed cuts rates during a recession?
• What happens when the Fed has not raised rates for a year?
• What happens after a bank failure?
• What happens to markets after a war or attack?
• What happens after a market crash?
• What happens during a government shutdown?
• What happens to stocks after a presidential election?
• What happens to stocks after a midterm election?
• What happens after a federal disaster declaration?

Other countries

• What happens when euro area inflation is above 5%?
• What happens when the ECB raises rates 2 points in a year?
• What happens when euro area unemployment is above 10%?
• What happens when the German 10-year yield is below zero?
• What happens when UK inflation is above 8%?
• What happens when the Bank of England raises rates 2 points in a year?
• What happens after UK share prices fall 20% in a year?
• What happens when Japan's inflation is above 3%?
• What happens after Japanese share prices fall 30% in a year?
• What happens after the Bank of Japan raises rates?

Combinations

• What happens when stocks fall 10% in a month while inflation is above 4%?
• What happens in a bear market when the Fed starts cutting?
• What happens in a bear market during an announced recession?
• What happens in a bear market with no recession announced?
• What happens when the yield curve is inverted and unemployment is rising?
• What happens when oil rises 50% in a year and inflation is above 5%?
• What happens when the VIX is above 40 and the Fed has just cut?
• What happens when gold rises while stocks fall?
• What happens when bond yields jump and stocks fall?
• What happens when the dollar rises 10% and gold falls 10% in a year?
• What happens when stocks hit a record high with inflation above 4%?
• What happens when stocks hit a record high with the yield curve inverted?
• What happens when stocks fall 5% in a week with the VIX above 30?
• What happens when the Nasdaq is down 30% and the Fed is still hiking?
• What happens when inflation is above 5% and the Fed has just raised rates?
• What happens when stocks rally 20% in six months with unemployment above 8%?
• What happens when mortgage rates are above 7% and housing starts fall 20%?
• What happens when Bitcoin and stocks are both in a bear market?
• What happens when stocks are up 30% in a year and the VIX is below 15?
• What happens when inflation is above 4% and unemployment is below 4%?
• What happens when stocks fall 10% in a month within a year after a presidential election?
• What happens when oil falls 50% and stocks are down 20%?