What happened last time? › Inflation
What happens when inflation is above 3%?
It has happened 37 times since 1914. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 20 of 30 times, with a median move of +5.0%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.4%, up 69% of the time.
CPI inflation above 3% a year. This is true today (2026-09-25).
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.6% 56% up · n 32 · normal +1.1% | +5.0% 67% up · n 30 · normal +9.4% | +25.4% 79% up · n 29 · normal +25.7% |
| Gold | +0.5% 57% up · n 21 · normal 0.0% | +1.9% 58% up · n 19 · normal +2.9% | +17.8% 78% up · n 18 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 38% up · n 21 · normal 0.0% | -1.1% 37% up · n 19 · normal 0.0% | -1.8% 44% up · n 18 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.19 pts 38% up · n 24 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.03 pts 50% up · n 22 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.21 pts 57% up · n 21 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.16 pts 50% up · n 20 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.25 pts 37% up · n 35 · normal -0.00 pts | -1.18 pts 26% up · n 34 · normal -0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 27% up · n 26 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.35 pts 29% up · n 24 · normal -0.20 pts | -1.00 pts 39% up · n 23 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-04-10 · true for 117 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-10-24 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-02-12 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.9%
- 2021-05-12 · true for 774 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.3%
- 2011-05-13 · true for 172 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.2%
- 2007-11-15 · true for 273 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -39.8%
- 2005-08-16 · true for 296 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.2%
- 2004-11-17 · true for 124 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.1%
- 2004-06-15 · true for 44 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.6%
- 2003-04-16 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.3%
- 2000-03-17 · true for 336 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.4%
- 1996-10-16 · true for 105 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.6%
- 1995-05-12 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.1%
- 1993-02-18 · true for 101 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.3%
- 1992-04-10 · true for 172 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.3%
- 1992-01-16 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.5%
- 1987-04-24 · true for 1154 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.6%
- 1983-12-21 · true for 588 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.7%
- 1972-10-20 · true for 2714 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.9%
- 1968-01-15 · true for 1110 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.9%
- 1966-09-15 · true for 127 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.2%
- 1958-02-17 · true for 104 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.1%
- 1957-12-16 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.5%
- 1957-03-18 · true for 169 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.5%
- 1952-08-15 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.3%
- 1950-11-15 · true for 382 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 1946-05-16 · true for 747 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -25.1%
- 1941-07-16 · true for 752 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.2%
- 1937-04-15 · true for 225 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -40.8%
- 1935-02-15 · true for 125 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +61.8%
- 1934-10-16 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.9%
- 1934-03-19 · true for 125 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.0%
- 1926-05-17 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1925-12-16 · true for 97 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1925-08-15 · true for 76 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1923-09-15 · true for 76 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1916-03-17 · true for 1438 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 37 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about inflation
- What happens when inflation is above 4%?
- What happens when inflation is above 5%?
- What happens when inflation is above 6%?
- What happens when inflation is above 8%?
- What happens when inflation is above 10%?
- What happens when inflation is below 1%?
- What happens during deflation (prices falling over a year)?
- What happens when core inflation is above 4%?