What happened last time? › Inflation
What happens when inflation is above 6%?
It has happened 11 times since 1914. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 4 of 9 times, with a median move of -5.4%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.4%, up 69% of the time.
CPI inflation above 6% a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -1.2% 33% up · n 9 · normal +1.1% | -5.4% 44% up · n 9 · normal +9.4% | +20.6% 78% up · n 9 · normal +25.7% |
| Gold | 0.0% 33% up · n 6 · normal 0.0% | +7.0% 67% up · n 6 · normal +2.9% | +64.0% 83% up · n 6 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | -4.2% 0% up · n 6 · normal 0.0% | +4.1% 67% up · n 6 · normal 0.0% | +73.1% 67% up · n 6 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.15 pts 33% up · n 6 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.16 pts 50% up · n 6 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.23 pts 50% up · n 6 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.06 pts 50% up · n 6 · normal 0.00 pts | +1.52 pts 55% up · n 11 · normal -0.00 pts | -2.53 pts 27% up · n 11 · normal -0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 29% up · n 7 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.60 pts 57% up · n 7 · normal -0.20 pts | +1.00 pts 71% up · n 7 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2021-11-10 · true for 355 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.9%
- 1990-10-18 · true for 85 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.4%
- 1977-04-21 · true for 1370 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.4%
- 1973-09-21 · true for 715 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -34.6%
- 1970-05-18 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.0%
- 1970-01-15 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.5%
- 1951-02-15 · true for 283 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.5%
- 1946-08-15 · true for 659 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.4%
- 1941-09-15 · true for 602 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.1%
- 1916-07-17 · true for 1337 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1916-04-15 · true for 50 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 11 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about inflation
- What happens when inflation is above 3%?
- What happens when inflation is above 4%?
- What happens when inflation is above 5%?
- What happens when inflation is above 8%?
- What happens when inflation is above 10%?
- What happens when inflation is below 1%?
- What happens during deflation (prices falling over a year)?
- What happens when core inflation is above 4%?