What happened last time? › Inflation
What happens when inflation is above 4%?
It has happened 22 times since 1914. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 6 of 16 times, with a median move of -9.9%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.4%, up 69% of the time.
CPI inflation above 4% a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -2.4% 41% up · n 17 · normal +1.1% | -9.9% 38% up · n 16 · normal +9.4% | -4.8% 38% up · n 16 · normal +25.7% |
| Gold | +3.2% 64% up · n 11 · normal 0.0% | +1.8% 60% up · n 10 · normal +2.9% | +44.1% 70% up · n 10 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | +1.6% 64% up · n 11 · normal 0.0% | -4.5% 30% up · n 10 · normal 0.0% | +22.0% 70% up · n 10 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.12 pts 45% up · n 11 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.02 pts 50% up · n 10 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.77 pts 30% up · n 10 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.35 pts 64% up · n 14 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.65 pts 38% up · n 21 · normal -0.00 pts | -2.93 pts 29% up · n 21 · normal -0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 17% up · n 12 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.40 pts 27% up · n 11 · normal -0.20 pts | +1.40 pts 73% up · n 11 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-06-10 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2021-05-12 · true for 544 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.3%
- 2008-06-13 · true for 111 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -30.4%
- 2007-12-14 · true for 83 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -40.1%
- 2006-06-14 · true for 65 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.8%
- 2005-10-14 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.1%
- 1988-08-23 · true for 773 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +34.1%
- 1987-09-23 · true for 126 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.2%
- 1984-02-24 · true for 231 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.9%
- 1973-04-23 · true for 2465 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.7%
- 1968-07-16 · true for 821 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.4%
- 1951-01-15 · true for 334 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.0%
- 1946-08-15 · true for 683 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.4%
- 1941-07-16 · true for 728 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.2%
- 1937-10-16 · true for 49 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.1%
- 1937-05-17 · true for 99 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -35.1%
- 1934-03-19 · true for 125 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.0%
- 1926-05-17 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1926-03-18 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1925-12-16 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1925-09-15 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1916-03-17 · true for 1438 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 22 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about inflation
- What happens when inflation is above 3%?
- What happens when inflation is above 5%?
- What happens when inflation is above 6%?
- What happens when inflation is above 8%?
- What happens when inflation is above 10%?
- What happens when inflation is below 1%?
- What happens during deflation (prices falling over a year)?
- What happens when core inflation is above 4%?