What happened last time? › Interest rates
What happens when 3-month Treasury bills pay over 5%?
It has happened 14 times since 1934. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 10 of 14 times, with a median move of +11.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.9%, up 72% of the time.
3-month Treasury yield above 5. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.9% 71% up · n 14 · normal +1.1% | +11.6% 71% up · n 14 · normal +9.9% | -9.5% 43% up · n 14 · normal +26.5% |
| Gold | +1.9% 57% up · n 14 · normal 0.0% | +18.3% 79% up · n 14 · normal +2.9% | +79.3% 93% up · n 14 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | +1.5% 50% up · n 14 · normal 0.0% | +7.8% 71% up · n 14 · normal 0.0% | +24.8% 86% up · n 14 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.07 pts 43% up · n 14 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.11 pts 43% up · n 14 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.08 pts 50% up · n 14 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.01 pts 43% up · n 14 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.02 pts 50% up · n 14 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.57 pts 43% up · n 14 · normal -0.05 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.05 pts 29% up · n 14 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.20 pts 29% up · n 14 · normal -0.20 pts | +1.20 pts 71% up · n 14 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2023-04-10 · true for 360 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.8%
- 2023-03-07 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.1%
- 2007-07-23 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.2%
- 2006-10-11 · true for 111 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.1%
- 2006-06-26 · true for 48 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.4%
- 1999-10-14 · true for 341 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.1%
- 1999-08-23 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.1%
- 1994-10-03 · true for 946 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.1%
- 1977-07-05 · true for 3621 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.8%
- 1976-06-02 · true for 107 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.5%
- 1973-01-02 · true for 779 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.0%
- 1971-08-02 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.0%
- 1968-04-02 · true for 667 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.8%
- 1966-10-03 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.0%
- 14 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about interest rates
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 8%?
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is below 2%?
- What happens after the 10-year yield rises 1 point in a year?
- What happens after the 10-year yield rises 2 points in a year?
- What happens after the 10-year yield falls 1 point in three months?
- What happens when the 2-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when the 30-year Treasury yield is above 5%?