What happened last time? › Interest rates
What happens after the 10-year yield falls 1 point in three months?
It has happened 23 times since 1953. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 23 of 23 times, with a median move of +19.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
10-year Treasury yield down more than 1 points over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.0% 65% up · n 23 · normal +1.1% | +19.6% 100% up · n 23 · normal +10.6% | +37.0% 91% up · n 23 · normal +27.4% |
| Gold | +0.1% 52% up · n 23 · normal 0.0% | +11.4% 74% up · n 23 · normal +2.9% | +10.5% 61% up · n 23 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 35% up · n 23 · normal 0.0% | +4.7% 61% up · n 23 · normal 0.0% | +17.3% 57% up · n 23 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.06 pts 43% up · n 23 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.17 pts 57% up · n 23 · normal +0.10 pts | -0.22 pts 43% up · n 23 · normal +0.07 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.03 pts 30% up · n 23 · normal -0.00 pts | -1.09 pts 17% up · n 23 · normal +0.03 pts | -0.28 pts 43% up · n 23 · normal +0.02 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 43% up · n 21 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.20 pts 39% up · n 23 · normal -0.20 pts | -1.10 pts 26% up · n 23 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-03-06 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.3%
- 2011-08-09 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.6%
- 2010-07-06 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +30.3%
- 2008-12-01 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.9%
- 2002-08-12 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.6%
- 1998-10-01 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.1%
- 1995-06-01 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.4%
- 1993-03-01 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.1%
- 1992-09-08 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.2%
- 1989-06-09 · true for 40 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.8%
- 1988-01-07 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.5%
- 1986-08-29 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.3%
- 1985-12-10 · true for 85 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.8%
- 1985-05-24 · true for 37 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.2%
- 1984-08-23 · true for 59 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.0%
- 1982-08-18 · true for 96 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +50.7%
- 1982-04-16 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.9%
- 1981-11-09 · true for 35 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 1980-05-02 · true for 51 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.7%
- 1971-10-26 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.9%
- 1971-03-22 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.0%
- 1970-11-20 · true for 34 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.4%
- 1970-03-30 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +11.9%
- 23 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about interest rates
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 8%?
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is below 2%?
- What happens after the 10-year yield rises 1 point in a year?
- What happens after the 10-year yield rises 2 points in a year?
- What happens when the 2-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when the 30-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when mortgage rates are above 7%?