What happened last time? › Interest rates
What happens after the 10-year yield rises 2 points in a year?
It has happened 14 times since 1954. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 9 of 14 times, with a median move of +11.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.4%, up 74% of the time.
10-year Treasury yield up more than 2 points over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -0.6% 50% up · n 14 · normal +1.1% | +11.6% 64% up · n 14 · normal +10.4% | +32.0% 86% up · n 14 · normal +27.1% |
| Gold | +0.2% 50% up · n 14 · normal 0.0% | -6.2% 36% up · n 14 · normal +2.9% | -8.1% 43% up · n 14 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | -0.4% 43% up · n 14 · normal 0.0% | -6.5% 36% up · n 14 · normal 0.0% | -9.5% 36% up · n 14 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.18 pts 64% up · n 14 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.22 pts 57% up · n 14 · normal +0.10 pts | -0.94 pts 21% up · n 14 · normal +0.05 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.00 pts 46% up · n 13 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.93 pts 21% up · n 14 · normal +0.04 pts | -4.78 pts 14% up · n 14 · normal -0.02 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 36% up · n 14 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.20 pts 57% up · n 14 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.75 pts 64% up · n 14 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2023-02-21 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.6%
- 2022-09-09 · true for 78 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.6%
- 2000-01-14 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.0%
- 1994-09-07 · true for 80 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.1%
- 1987-12-10 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.6%
- 1987-08-31 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -20.4%
- 1984-04-03 · true for 69 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.6%
- 1982-01-05 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.3%
- 1981-04-15 · true for 141 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.3%
- 1980-11-06 · true for 29 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.8%
- 1980-08-11 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.3%
- 1980-01-25 · true for 56 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.6%
- 1979-10-19 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.4%
- 1969-09-30 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.5%
- 14 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about interest rates
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 8%?
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is below 2%?
- What happens after the 10-year yield rises 1 point in a year?
- What happens after the 10-year yield falls 1 point in three months?
- What happens when the 2-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when the 30-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when mortgage rates are above 7%?