What happened last time? › Interest rates
What happens after the 10-year yield rises 1 point in a year?
It has happened 33 times since 1954. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 23 of 32 times, with a median move of +11.9%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.4%, up 74% of the time.
10-year Treasury yield up more than 1 points over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.4% 53% up · n 32 · normal +1.1% | +11.9% 72% up · n 32 · normal +10.4% | +28.9% 84% up · n 31 · normal +27.1% |
| Gold | +0.1% 52% up · n 31 · normal 0.0% | +5.2% 65% up · n 31 · normal +2.9% | +15.2% 67% up · n 30 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 45% up · n 31 · normal 0.0% | +0.2% 52% up · n 31 · normal 0.0% | -2.3% 47% up · n 30 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.09 pts 58% up · n 31 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.17 pts 53% up · n 32 · normal +0.10 pts | -0.34 pts 42% up · n 31 · normal +0.05 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.18 pts 58% up · n 31 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.13 pts 53% up · n 32 · normal +0.04 pts | -0.64 pts 42% up · n 31 · normal -0.02 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 23% up · n 31 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.15 pts 38% up · n 32 · normal -0.20 pts | -0.30 pts 48% up · n 31 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-09-24 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2024-04-03 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.6%
- 2023-07-05 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.5%
- 2023-05-25 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.8%
- 2022-04-08 · true for 247 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.5%
- 2021-03-09 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.4%
- 2017-07-10 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +15.1%
- 2014-04-22 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.2%
- 2013-07-05 · true for 92 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.7%
- 2009-12-15 · true for 46 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.5%
- 2006-05-12 · true for 29 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.6%
- 2004-05-07 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.6%
- 2000-04-28 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.7%
- 1999-09-09 · true for 133 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.9%
- 1997-01-17 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.9%
- 1996-07-05 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +39.5%
- 1994-04-14 · true for 210 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.1%
- 1989-02-09 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.7%
- 1987-06-30 · true for 170 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.9%
- 1987-04-14 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.7%
- 1983-10-12 · true for 193 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.0%
- 1982-06-15 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +52.4%
- 1981-12-21 · true for 46 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.4%
- 1981-04-06 · true for 150 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.9%
- 1979-09-10 · true for 315 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.7%
- 1978-05-25 · true for 206 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.5%
- 1974-09-30 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.0%
- 1973-07-19 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.6%
- 1970-08-17 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.7%
- 1969-06-24 · true for 220 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -24.0%
- 1967-12-22 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.7%
- 1966-08-18 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.2%
- 1959-04-02 · true for 108 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.0%
- 33 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about interest rates
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 8%?
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is below 2%?
- What happens after the 10-year yield rises 2 points in a year?
- What happens after the 10-year yield falls 1 point in three months?
- What happens when the 2-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when the 30-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when mortgage rates are above 7%?