What happened last time? › Combinations
What happens when bond yields jump and stocks fall?
It has happened 17 times since 1954. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 14 of 17 times, with a median move of +16.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.4%, up 74% of the time.
10-year Treasury yield up more than 1 points over a year · S&P 500 down more than 10% over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.5% 71% up · n 17 · normal +1.1% | +16.5% 82% up · n 17 · normal +10.4% | +42.0% 100% up · n 17 · normal +27.1% |
| Gold | -0.7% 24% up · n 17 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 47% up · n 17 · normal +2.9% | +19.1% 53% up · n 17 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 18% up · n 17 · normal 0.0% | -7.1% 35% up · n 17 · normal 0.0% | +24.1% 53% up · n 17 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.13 pts 35% up · n 17 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.07 pts 47% up · n 17 · normal +0.10 pts | -0.55 pts 29% up · n 17 · normal +0.05 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.01 pts 44% up · n 16 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.88 pts 12% up · n 17 · normal +0.04 pts | -2.48 pts 29% up · n 17 · normal -0.02 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 47% up · n 17 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.30 pts 65% up · n 17 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.30 pts 59% up · n 17 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2023-03-17 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.6%
- 2022-08-29 · true for 98 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.6%
- 2022-06-13 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 1988-03-22 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.1%
- 1988-01-22 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +16.3%
- 1987-12-03 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.7%
- 1984-07-19 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.8%
- 1984-06-14 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.4%
- 1982-06-15 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +52.4%
- 1981-12-28 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.1%
- 1981-09-22 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.3%
- 1974-09-30 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.0%
- 1973-08-22 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -27.6%
- 1970-08-17 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.7%
- 1969-11-20 · true for 110 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.8%
- 1969-10-01 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.9%
- 1966-08-25 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.8%
- 17 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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- What happens when the VIX is above 40 and the Fed has just cut?
- What happens when gold rises while stocks fall?