What happened last time? › Combinations
What happens when oil rises 50% in a year and inflation is above 5%?
It has happened 6 times since 1961. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 3 of 6 times, with a median move of -3.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.3%, up 75% of the time.
Crude oil (WTI) up more than 50% over a year · CPI inflation above 5% a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -1.0% 50% up · n 6 · normal +1.1% | -3.5% 50% up · n 6 · normal +10.3% | +19.2% 83% up · n 6 · normal +27.9% |
| Gold | -4.5% 0% up · n 5 · normal 0.0% | +3.4% 50% up · n 6 · normal +3.4% | +44.7% 83% up · n 6 · normal +11.2% |
| Oil | -8.1% 20% up · n 5 · normal 0.0% | +8.4% 50% up · n 6 · normal 0.0% | -8.4% 50% up · n 6 · normal +10.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.04 pts 17% up · n 6 · normal 0.00 pts | +1.13 pts 67% up · n 6 · normal +0.07 pts | +0.97 pts 67% up · n 6 · normal -0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.49 pts 67% up · n 6 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.92 pts 50% up · n 6 · normal +0.06 pts | -2.14 pts 0% up · n 6 · normal +0.09 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.15 pts 67% up · n 6 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.70 pts 67% up · n 6 · normal -0.30 pts | +2.05 pts 83% up · n 6 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-08-22 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +6.0%
- 2021-07-13 · true for 226 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.0%
- 2008-07-16 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -24.5%
- 1990-09-18 · true for 49 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.5%
- 1979-03-08 · true for 317 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.4%
- 1973-11-08 · true for 316 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -30.0%
- 6 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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- What happens when gold rises while stocks fall?
- What happens when bond yields jump and stocks fall?