What happened last time? › Combinations
What happens when stocks fall 10% in a month while inflation is above 4%?
It has happened 23 times since 1928. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 16 of 23 times, with a median move of +8.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.4%, up 69% of the time.
S&P 500 down more than 10% over 30 days · CPI inflation above 4% a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -0.1% 48% up · n 23 · normal +1.1% | +8.6% 70% up · n 23 · normal +9.4% | +31.0% 87% up · n 23 · normal +25.8% |
| Gold | -1.2% 40% up · n 15 · normal 0.0% | +0.4% 50% up · n 16 · normal +2.9% | +15.3% 56% up · n 16 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 33% up · n 15 · normal 0.0% | -0.1% 50% up · n 16 · normal 0.0% | +7.7% 50% up · n 16 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.06 pts 69% up · n 16 · normal +0.01 pts | 0.00 pts 50% up · n 16 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.52 pts 25% up · n 16 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.14 pts 61% up · n 23 · normal 0.00 pts | -3.27 pts 13% up · n 23 · normal -0.01 pts | -2.59 pts 13% up · n 23 · normal -0.03 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.10 pts 65% up · n 17 · normal 0.00 pts | +1.60 pts 82% up · n 17 · normal -0.20 pts | +1.30 pts 82% up · n 17 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-09-23 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.0%
- 2022-04-29 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.9%
- 2008-09-29 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.1%
- 2008-07-15 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -23.2%
- 2008-01-22 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -35.9%
- 1990-08-21 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.4%
- 1987-10-16 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.5%
- 1981-09-08 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.6%
- 1980-03-13 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.0%
- 1978-11-10 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.1%
- 1975-08-14 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +21.8%
- 1974-12-05 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.3%
- 1974-08-19 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.9%
- 1974-07-08 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 1973-11-20 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -31.2%
- 1970-04-28 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.5%
- 1948-11-24 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.6%
- 1946-09-03 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.2%
- 1941-12-22 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.1%
- 1937-10-16 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.1%
- 1937-09-07 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.5%
- 1934-07-26 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.1%
- 1934-05-07 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.4%
- 23 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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- What happens when gold rises while stocks fall?
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