What happened last time? › Combinations
What happens when gold rises while stocks fall?
It has happened 18 times since 1960. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 13 of 18 times, with a median move of +24.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.5%, up 75% of the time.
Gold ($/oz) up more than 10% over 3 months · S&P 500 down more than 10% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.6% 72% up · n 18 · normal +1.1% | +24.1% 72% up · n 18 · normal +10.5% | +43.7% 82% up · n 17 · normal +27.9% |
| Gold | -1.0% 44% up · n 18 · normal 0.0% | +7.4% 67% up · n 18 · normal +3.0% | +18.4% 76% up · n 17 · normal +10.6% |
| Oil | 0.0% 44% up · n 18 · normal 0.0% | +35.6% 72% up · n 18 · normal 0.0% | +60.8% 71% up · n 17 · normal +9.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.07 pts 56% up · n 18 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.57 pts 72% up · n 18 · normal +0.06 pts | +0.05 pts 53% up · n 17 · normal -0.05 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.36 pts 59% up · n 17 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.11 pts 50% up · n 18 · normal +0.04 pts | -0.13 pts 47% up · n 17 · normal +0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 39% up · n 18 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.15 pts 61% up · n 18 · normal -0.30 pts | +1.30 pts 59% up · n 17 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-04-04 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.7%
- 2022-03-08 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.3%
- 2020-04-13 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +50.0%
- 2020-03-09 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.1%
- 2016-02-10 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.6%
- 2011-08-04 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.9%
- 2010-06-29 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.6%
- 2009-01-20 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.3%
- 2008-12-11 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +26.7%
- 2008-01-08 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -34.8%
- 2003-02-20 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +36.7%
- 2002-06-06 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.0%
- 1999-10-15 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.2%
- 1990-08-22 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.6%
- 1980-04-21 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +34.5%
- 1978-11-13 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.5%
- 1974-02-08 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.8%
- 1973-05-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.4%
- 18 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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