What happened last time? › Interest rates
What happens when mortgage rates are above 7%?
It has happened 11 times since 1971. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 8 of 10 times, with a median move of +6.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.1%, up 76% of the time.
30-year mortgage rate above 7. This is true today (2026-09-25).
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.9% 80% up · n 10 · normal +1.1% | +6.6% 80% up · n 10 · normal +11.1% | +3.5% 63% up · n 8 · normal +31.4% |
| Gold | +1.2% 60% up · n 10 · normal +0.2% | +18.3% 90% up · n 10 · normal +6.1% | +58.7% 100% up · n 8 · normal +13.9% |
| Oil | -3.1% 30% up · n 10 · normal 0.0% | +11.1% 60% up · n 10 · normal +3.9% | +55.5% 88% up · n 8 · normal +15.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.05 pts 50% up · n 10 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.11 pts 50% up · n 10 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.13 pts 50% up · n 8 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.03 pts 40% up · n 10 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.16 pts 40% up · n 10 · normal +0.03 pts | +0.25 pts 63% up · n 8 · normal -0.25 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.10 pts 56% up · n 9 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.30 pts 60% up · n 10 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.35 pts 63% up · n 8 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-09-24 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-01-16 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.9%
- 2024-04-18 · true for 30 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.4%
- 2023-08-17 · true for 83 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.1%
- 2022-10-27 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.1%
- 2002-03-15 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.5%
- 2001-11-30 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.8%
- 1999-05-07 · true for 537 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.5%
- 1999-03-05 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.5%
- 1993-11-05 · true for 1118 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.6%
- 1971-04-02 · true for 5662 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.6%
- 11 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about interest rates
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 8%?
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is below 2%?
- What happens after the 10-year yield rises 1 point in a year?
- What happens after the 10-year yield rises 2 points in a year?
- What happens after the 10-year yield falls 1 point in three months?
- What happens when the 2-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when the 30-year Treasury yield is above 5%?