What happened last time? › Combinations
What happens when oil falls 50% and stocks are down 20%?
It has happened 2 times since 1960. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 2 of 2 times, with a median move of +42.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.4%, up 75% of the time.
Crude oil (WTI) down more than 50% over 6 months · S&P 500 more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +6.7% 50% up · n 2 · normal +1.1% | +42.1% 100% up · n 2 · normal +10.4% | +52.2% 100% up · n 2 · normal +28.0% |
| Gold | +8.7% 100% up · n 2 · normal 0.0% | +32.3% 100% up · n 2 · normal +3.2% | +83.6% 100% up · n 2 · normal +10.7% |
| Oil | -31.8% 0% up · n 2 · normal 0.0% | +75.6% 100% up · n 2 · normal 0.0% | +95.3% 100% up · n 2 · normal +9.5% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.59 pts 0% up · n 2 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.34 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal +0.07 pts | +0.57 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal -0.05 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -1.04 pts 0% up · n 2 · normal -0.00 pts | -3.44 pts 0% up · n 2 · normal +0.05 pts | +1.32 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.75 pts 100% up · n 2 · normal 0.00 pts | +3.40 pts 100% up · n 2 · normal -0.30 pts | +1.50 pts 100% up · n 2 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-03-16 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +66.1%
- 2008-11-06 · true for 96 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.2%
- 2 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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