What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after oil falls 50% in six months?
It has happened 7 times since 1960. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 6 of 7 times, with a median move of +18.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.4%, up 75% of the time.
Crude oil (WTI) down more than 50% over 6 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +3.5% 86% up · n 7 · normal +1.1% | +18.2% 86% up · n 7 · normal +10.4% | +31.4% 100% up · n 7 · normal +28.0% |
| Gold | +1.8% 71% up · n 7 · normal 0.0% | +15.2% 57% up · n 7 · normal +3.2% | +9.8% 100% up · n 7 · normal +10.7% |
| Oil | -12.8% 43% up · n 7 · normal 0.0% | +27.5% 71% up · n 7 · normal 0.0% | +43.7% 86% up · n 7 · normal +9.5% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.23 pts 14% up · n 7 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.21 pts 57% up · n 7 · normal +0.07 pts | +0.42 pts 71% up · n 7 · normal -0.05 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.57 pts 0% up · n 7 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.82 pts 29% up · n 7 · normal +0.05 pts | +0.88 pts 71% up · n 7 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.30 pts 71% up · n 7 · normal 0.00 pts | 0.00 pts 43% up · n 7 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.30 pts 29% up · n 7 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-10-19 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +31.9%
- 2020-03-16 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +66.1%
- 2015-01-05 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.2%
- 2008-11-06 · true for 96 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.2%
- 1991-03-25 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.6%
- 1986-06-02 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.7%
- 1986-02-28 · true for 40 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 7 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about commodities
- What happens after oil rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after oil doubles in a year?
- What happens after oil rises 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 30% in three months?
- What happens when oil hits an all-time high?
- What happens after gold rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after gold doubles in a year?
- What happens after gold rises 30% in three months?