What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after oil rises 50% in a year?
It has happened 25 times since 1961. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 17 of 23 times, with a median move of +6.8%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.3%, up 75% of the time.
Crude oil (WTI) up more than 50% over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.4% 63% up · n 24 · normal +1.1% | +6.8% 74% up · n 23 · normal +10.3% | +27.1% 83% up · n 23 · normal +27.9% |
| Gold | -0.7% 48% up · n 23 · normal 0.0% | +12.6% 91% up · n 23 · normal +3.4% | +50.8% 83% up · n 23 · normal +11.2% |
| Oil | 0.0% 48% up · n 23 · normal 0.0% | +7.2% 57% up · n 23 · normal 0.0% | +15.9% 65% up · n 23 · normal +10.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.01 pts 46% up · n 24 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.08 pts 57% up · n 23 · normal +0.07 pts | -0.62 pts 39% up · n 23 · normal -0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.13 pts 67% up · n 24 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.91 pts 70% up · n 23 · normal +0.06 pts | +0.94 pts 61% up · n 23 · normal +0.09 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 30% up · n 23 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.20 pts 26% up · n 23 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.70 pts 61% up · n 23 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-09-08 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2026-03-30 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2022-08-22 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +6.0%
- 2021-03-08 · true for 313 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.1%
- 2018-10-03 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.5%
- 2018-08-30 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +0.9%
- 2018-06-20 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.8%
- 2018-05-04 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.6%
- 2016-12-19 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.5%
- 2009-11-20 · true for 107 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.9%
- 2007-10-18 · true for 203 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -38.9%
- 2005-12-12 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +12.0%
- 2005-08-25 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.8%
- 2005-06-16 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.4%
- 2005-03-14 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.5%
- 2004-08-13 · true for 59 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.6%
- 2004-05-05 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.6%
- 2002-11-20 · true for 67 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.1%
- 1999-06-15 · true for 248 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.0%
- 1990-08-06 · true for 66 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.8%
- 1989-10-03 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.2%
- 1987-06-04 · true for 34 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.7%
- 1987-03-24 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.9%
- 1979-03-08 · true for 317 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.4%
- 1973-11-08 · true for 316 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -30.0%
- 25 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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- What happens after oil doubles in a year?
- What happens after oil rises 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 50% in six months?
- What happens when oil hits an all-time high?
- What happens after gold rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after gold doubles in a year?
- What happens after gold rises 30% in three months?