What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens when oil hits an all-time high?
It has happened 15 times since 1960. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 11 of 15 times, with a median move of +9.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 75% of the time.
Crude oil (WTI): % below its all-time high above -0.01. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.2% 53% up · n 15 · normal +1.1% | +9.5% 73% up · n 15 · normal +10.6% | +8.2% 53% up · n 15 · normal +27.8% |
| Gold | +2.6% 69% up · n 13 · normal 0.0% | +12.0% 93% up · n 15 · normal +2.9% | +74.8% 93% up · n 15 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | -0.6% 31% up · n 13 · normal 0.0% | +12.5% 60% up · n 15 · normal 0.0% | +0.8% 53% up · n 15 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.20 pts 40% up · n 15 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.32 pts 40% up · n 15 · normal +0.06 pts | -0.30 pts 40% up · n 15 · normal -0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.17 pts 21% up · n 14 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.63 pts 53% up · n 15 · normal +0.04 pts | -0.68 pts 33% up · n 15 · normal +0.03 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 36% up · n 14 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.10 pts 40% up · n 15 · normal -0.30 pts | +2.60 pts 67% up · n 15 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2008-02-19 · true for 35 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -41.5%
- 2008-01-02 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -37.6%
- 2007-09-12 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.1%
- 2007-07-31 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -11.8%
- 2006-07-05 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.0%
- 2006-04-17 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.5%
- 2005-06-17 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.8%
- 2005-03-17 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.8%
- 2004-09-24 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.5%
- 2004-07-28 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.5%
- 2004-05-14 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.3%
- 1979-10-08 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.2%
- 1978-12-08 · true for 167 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.3%
- 1971-02-08 · true for 819 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.5%
- 1960-02-08 · true for 504 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.4%
- 15 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about commodities
- What happens after oil rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after oil doubles in a year?
- What happens after oil rises 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 50% in six months?
- What happens after gold rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after gold doubles in a year?
- What happens after gold rises 30% in three months?