What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after oil rises 30% in three months?
It has happened 34 times since 1960. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 22 of 32 times, with a median move of +9.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.5%, up 75% of the time.
Crude oil (WTI) up more than 30% over 3 months. This is true today (2026-09-25).
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.3% 67% up · n 33 · normal +1.1% | +9.5% 69% up · n 32 · normal +10.5% | +28.0% 75% up · n 32 · normal +27.9% |
| Gold | -0.3% 48% up · n 33 · normal 0.0% | +6.0% 63% up · n 32 · normal +3.0% | +13.6% 75% up · n 32 · normal +10.6% |
| Oil | +1.4% 55% up · n 33 · normal 0.0% | +11.3% 59% up · n 32 · normal 0.0% | +32.4% 78% up · n 32 · normal +9.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | 0.00 pts 48% up · n 33 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.10 pts 53% up · n 32 · normal +0.06 pts | +0.03 pts 50% up · n 32 · normal -0.05 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.12 pts 64% up · n 33 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.96 pts 78% up · n 32 · normal +0.04 pts | +0.16 pts 53% up · n 32 · normal +0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 22% up · n 32 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.30 pts 25% up · n 32 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.05 pts 44% up · n 32 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-09-15 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2026-03-05 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2023-09-11 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.5%
- 2022-02-28 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.2%
- 2021-01-11 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.0%
- 2020-06-16 · true for 45 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.2%
- 2019-03-21 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.3%
- 2016-04-12 · true for 48 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.7%
- 2015-06-12 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.1%
- 2015-04-30 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -1.0%
- 2012-01-03 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +14.5%
- 2011-04-26 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.2%
- 2009-03-19 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +47.9%
- 2008-04-22 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -38.7%
- 2007-11-05 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -33.0%
- 2005-08-11 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.3%
- 2005-03-08 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.8%
- 2004-09-27 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.2%
- 2003-02-05 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.8%
- 2002-03-11 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -31.5%
- 2000-01-19 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.4%
- 1999-11-24 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.7%
- 1999-08-19 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.7%
- 1999-03-10 · true for 47 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.9%
- 1998-09-18 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +30.9%
- 1996-04-11 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.9%
- 1994-05-20 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.1%
- 1990-08-02 · true for 68 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.2%
- 1989-01-03 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.3%
- 1987-01-15 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.1%
- 1986-10-02 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +40.2%
- 1979-02-08 · true for 126 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.8%
- 1973-11-08 · true for 125 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -30.0%
- 1971-02-08 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.5%
- 34 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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