What happened last time? › Interest rates
What happens when real yields (10-year TIPS) are above 2%?
It has happened 13 times since 2003. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 10 of 11 times, with a median move of +15.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +12.2%, up 83% of the time.
10-year real yield (TIPS) above 2. This is true today (2026-09-25).
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.1% 62% up · n 13 · normal +1.4% | +15.5% 91% up · n 11 · normal +12.2% | +29.8% 78% up · n 9 · normal +32.8% |
| Gold | -1.2% 46% up · n 13 · normal +0.7% | +24.9% 100% up · n 11 · normal +10.5% | +75.0% 100% up · n 9 · normal +42.7% |
| Oil | -0.5% 46% up · n 13 · normal +1.1% | +3.3% 55% up · n 11 · normal +6.3% | +75.5% 89% up · n 9 · normal +13.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.07 pts 31% up · n 13 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.24 pts 55% up · n 11 · normal -0.03 pts | -0.50 pts 44% up · n 9 · normal -0.08 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.16 pts 77% up · n 13 · normal +0.03 pts | +0.57 pts 55% up · n 11 · normal +0.04 pts | +1.26 pts 78% up · n 9 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 18% up · n 11 · normal 0.00 pts | 0.00 pts 45% up · n 11 · normal -0.40 pts | +0.30 pts 56% up · n 9 · normal -1.10 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-05-15 · true for 92 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2026-03-20 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2024-11-01 · true for 122 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.4%
- 2024-02-13 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.2%
- 2023-09-21 · true for 55 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.7%
- 2009-07-06 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +14.4%
- 2009-02-26 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +46.7%
- 2008-09-24 · true for 69 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.4%
- 2005-10-25 · true for 496 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.5%
- 2005-08-08 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.0%
- 2004-04-23 · true for 56 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.0%
- 2003-07-03 · true for 87 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.2%
- 2003-01-02 · true for 68 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.9%
- 13 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about interest rates
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 8%?
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is below 2%?
- What happens after the 10-year yield rises 1 point in a year?
- What happens after the 10-year yield rises 2 points in a year?
- What happens after the 10-year yield falls 1 point in three months?
- What happens when the 2-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when the 30-year Treasury yield is above 5%?