What happened last time? › Interest rates
What happens when real yields (10-year TIPS) are below zero?
It has happened 6 times since 2003. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 5 of 6 times, with a median move of +17.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +12.2%, up 83% of the time.
10-year real yield (TIPS) below 0. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.6% 83% up · n 6 · normal +1.4% | +17.5% 83% up · n 6 · normal +12.2% | +46.7% 100% up · n 6 · normal +32.8% |
| Gold | +1.6% 83% up · n 6 · normal +0.7% | +1.3% 67% up · n 6 · normal +10.5% | +7.5% 67% up · n 6 · normal +42.7% |
| Oil | +2.8% 67% up · n 6 · normal +1.1% | -5.0% 17% up · n 6 · normal +6.3% | +20.5% 83% up · n 6 · normal +13.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.12 pts 67% up · n 6 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.38 pts 17% up · n 6 · normal -0.03 pts | +0.81 pts 100% up · n 6 · normal -0.08 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.02 pts 40% up · n 5 · normal +0.03 pts | -0.87 pts 33% up · n 6 · normal +0.04 pts | +1.60 pts 67% up · n 6 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 33% up · n 6 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.45 pts 33% up · n 6 · normal -0.40 pts | -1.20 pts 0% up · n 6 · normal -1.10 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-01-27 · true for 561 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.7%
- 2019-08-15 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.4%
- 2016-07-05 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 2015-04-17 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -0.0%
- 2011-11-01 · true for 381 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.9%
- 2011-08-10 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 6 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about interest rates
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 8%?
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is below 2%?
- What happens after the 10-year yield rises 1 point in a year?
- What happens after the 10-year yield rises 2 points in a year?
- What happens after the 10-year yield falls 1 point in three months?
- What happens when the 2-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when the 30-year Treasury yield is above 5%?