What happened last time? › Combinations
What happens when stocks fall 10% in a month within a year after a presidential election?
It has happened 15 times since 1928. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 7 of 15 times, with a median move of -1.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.4%, up 69% of the time.
S&P 500 down more than 10% over 30 days · a presidential election in the last 365 days. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.0% 60% up · n 15 · normal +1.1% | -1.2% 47% up · n 15 · normal +9.4% | +38.4% 71% up · n 14 · normal +25.8% |
| Gold | +3.5% 67% up · n 6 · normal 0.0% | +16.5% 83% up · n 6 · normal +2.9% | +47.4% 80% up · n 5 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | -2.2% 33% up · n 6 · normal 0.0% | +19.5% 67% up · n 6 · normal 0.0% | +52.7% 80% up · n 5 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.05 pts 57% up · n 7 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.16 pts 43% up · n 7 · normal +0.09 pts | -1.04 pts 0% up · n 6 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | 0.00 pts 47% up · n 15 · normal 0.00 pts | -1.26 pts 33% up · n 15 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.57 pts 43% up · n 14 · normal -0.03 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.10 pts 75% up · n 8 · normal 0.00 pts | +2.65 pts 100% up · n 8 · normal -0.20 pts | +1.30 pts 86% up · n 7 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-04-04 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.7%
- 2009-02-02 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.7%
- 2008-11-12 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.6%
- 2001-09-17 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.9%
- 2001-03-12 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.2%
- 1981-09-08 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.6%
- 1957-10-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.0%
- 1948-11-24 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.6%
- 1941-02-14 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -9.5%
- 1937-09-07 · true for 46 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.5%
- 1937-04-29 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -38.8%
- 1933-09-26 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.7%
- 1933-08-03 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.1%
- 1933-02-06 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +82.4%
- 1929-10-21 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -38.5%
- 15 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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- What happens when oil rises 50% in a year and inflation is above 5%?
- What happens when the VIX is above 40 and the Fed has just cut?
- What happens when gold rises while stocks fall?