What happened last time? › Combinations
What happens when stocks rally 20% in six months with unemployment above 8%?
It has happened 8 times since 1948. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 6 of 8 times, with a median move of +12.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 75% of the time.
S&P 500 up more than 20% over 6 months · Unemployment rate above 8. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -1.2% 38% up · n 8 · normal +1.1% | +12.1% 75% up · n 8 · normal +10.6% | +38.3% 100% up · n 8 · normal +28.9% |
| Gold | -1.6% 25% up · n 8 · normal 0.0% | -4.3% 25% up · n 8 · normal +2.9% | -15.0% 13% up · n 8 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | -0.2% 38% up · n 8 · normal 0.0% | +4.2% 50% up · n 8 · normal 0.0% | -3.5% 50% up · n 8 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.02 pts 50% up · n 8 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.24 pts 63% up · n 8 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.43 pts 25% up · n 8 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.17 pts 25% up · n 8 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.38 pts 50% up · n 8 · normal -0.01 pts | -1.51 pts 38% up · n 8 · normal -0.01 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 29% up · n 7 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.70 pts 0% up · n 8 · normal -0.20 pts | -2.80 pts 0% up · n 8 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-09-09 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.2%
- 2012-03-21 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.2%
- 2012-02-06 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.4%
- 2010-12-28 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.7%
- 2009-08-03 · true for 92 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.8%
- 1983-07-25 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.8%
- 1982-10-20 · true for 111 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.9%
- 1975-03-05 · true for 84 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.9%
- 8 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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