What happened last time? › Interest rates
What happens after the Fed raises rates 3 points in a year?
It has happened 28 times since 1955. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 17 of 28 times, with a median move of +5.0%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.1%, up 74% of the time.
Fed funds rate up more than 3 points over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.9% 68% up · n 28 · normal +1.1% | +5.0% 61% up · n 28 · normal +10.1% | +16.7% 82% up · n 28 · normal +27.2% |
| Gold | 0.0% 38% up · n 24 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 48% up · n 25 · normal +2.9% | +11.6% 64% up · n 25 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 46% up · n 24 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 44% up · n 25 · normal 0.0% | +11.6% 52% up · n 25 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.07 pts 54% up · n 28 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.55 pts 75% up · n 28 · normal +0.08 pts | +0.08 pts 54% up · n 28 · normal 0.00 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.02 pts 50% up · n 28 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.24 pts 57% up · n 28 · normal +0.04 pts | +0.12 pts 50% up · n 28 · normal -0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 22% up · n 27 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.05 pts 43% up · n 28 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.70 pts 68% up · n 28 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-10-31 · true for 184 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.3%
- 2022-09-30 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +19.6%
- 1995-07-05 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +22.9%
- 1994-11-23 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.0%
- 1989-02-08 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.5%
- 1988-12-15 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +27.7%
- 1986-12-30 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +1.8%
- 1985-12-31 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +14.6%
- 1981-04-29 · true for 114 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.7%
- 1980-11-06 · true for 55 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.8%
- 1979-07-05 · true for 150 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.7%
- 1978-10-24 · true for 113 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.0%
- 1978-07-19 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +3.6%
- 1974-10-10 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +26.4%
- 1973-01-30 · true for 289 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.2%
- 1969-05-22 · true for 91 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -30.9%
- 1969-03-13 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -10.7%
- 1968-10-24 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -5.5%
- 1968-07-18 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -6.4%
- 1968-03-28 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +13.3%
- 1967-01-19 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +11.0%
- 1966-12-08 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +16.3%
- 1966-09-29 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +26.7%
- 1966-06-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +6.4%
- 1965-10-14 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -16.0%
- 1959-10-28 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.7%
- 1959-09-17 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -2.3%
- 1959-05-29 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.0%
- 28 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about interest rates
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 8%?
- What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield is below 2%?
- What happens after the 10-year yield rises 1 point in a year?
- What happens after the 10-year yield rises 2 points in a year?
- What happens after the 10-year yield falls 1 point in three months?
- What happens when the 2-year Treasury yield is above 5%?
- What happens when the 30-year Treasury yield is above 5%?