What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after Brent crude falls 30% in three months?
It has happened 15 times since 1987. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 10 of 14 times, with a median move of +12.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.9%, up 80% of the time.
Crude oil (Brent) down more than 30% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.1% 53% up · n 15 · normal +1.2% | +12.2% 71% up · n 14 · normal +11.9% | +29.8% 86% up · n 14 · normal +33.3% |
| Gold | -1.5% 27% up · n 15 · normal +0.1% | +1.3% 57% up · n 14 · normal +3.9% | +8.2% 71% up · n 14 · normal +13.1% |
| Oil | +3.4% 60% up · n 15 · normal +0.8% | +10.3% 57% up · n 14 · normal +4.6% | +33.0% 71% up · n 14 · normal +13.3% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.06 pts 60% up · n 15 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.22 pts 36% up · n 14 · normal -0.19 pts | -0.52 pts 43% up · n 14 · normal -0.48 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.17 pts 20% up · n 15 · normal -0.00 pts | -1.11 pts 29% up · n 14 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.27 pts 57% up · n 14 · normal -0.31 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 33% up · n 15 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.05 pts 50% up · n 14 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.30 pts 57% up · n 14 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-06-17 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2022-09-07 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.8%
- 2020-03-06 · true for 60 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.3%
- 2018-12-18 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.3%
- 2016-01-05 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.6%
- 2015-08-21 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.8%
- 2014-12-03 · true for 48 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.2%
- 2008-09-15 · true for 87 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.7%
- 2001-11-15 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -20.3%
- 2000-12-20 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -9.9%
- 1998-12-18 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.6%
- 1998-02-13 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.6%
- 1997-04-07 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +45.6%
- 1990-12-24 · true for 60 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.0%
- 1990-04-11 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +10.4%
- 15 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about commodities
- What happens after oil rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after oil doubles in a year?
- What happens after oil rises 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 50% in six months?
- What happens when oil hits an all-time high?
- What happens after gold rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after gold doubles in a year?