What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after Brent crude rises 30% in three months?
It has happened 31 times since 1987. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 20 of 29 times, with a median move of +9.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.9%, up 80% of the time.
Crude oil (Brent) up more than 30% over 3 months. This is true today (2026-09-25).
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.8% 63% up · n 30 · normal +1.2% | +9.1% 69% up · n 29 · normal +11.9% | +37.0% 79% up · n 29 · normal +33.3% |
| Gold | +1.0% 53% up · n 30 · normal +0.1% | +3.1% 59% up · n 29 · normal +3.9% | +27.5% 79% up · n 29 · normal +13.1% |
| Oil | +3.8% 67% up · n 30 · normal +0.8% | +10.0% 55% up · n 29 · normal +4.6% | +8.8% 66% up · n 29 · normal +13.3% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.04 pts 53% up · n 30 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.07 pts 48% up · n 29 · normal -0.19 pts | -0.72 pts 34% up · n 29 · normal -0.48 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.18 pts 73% up · n 30 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.90 pts 83% up · n 29 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.27 pts 41% up · n 29 · normal -0.31 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 22% up · n 27 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.30 pts 31% up · n 29 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.10 pts 41% up · n 29 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-09-10 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2026-03-03 · true for 61 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2023-09-26 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.9%
- 2022-02-25 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.5%
- 2020-12-14 · true for 49 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.0%
- 2020-06-15 · true for 53 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +38.5%
- 2019-03-26 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.2%
- 2017-09-22 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.1%
- 2017-02-10 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +13.1%
- 2016-04-11 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.3%
- 2015-04-23 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.0%
- 2011-04-05 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.0%
- 2011-02-24 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.6%
- 2009-05-18 · true for 48 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.2%
- 2009-03-23 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +42.7%
- 2008-04-23 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -38.3%
- 2007-11-06 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -37.3%
- 2007-04-09 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.5%
- 2005-08-10 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.5%
- 2005-03-03 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.3%
- 2004-09-22 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.1%
- 2003-02-06 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +36.3%
- 2002-03-13 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -27.9%
- 2000-06-30 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.8%
- 1999-12-06 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -3.3%
- 1999-03-15 · true for 106 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.0%
- 1996-10-22 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.1%
- 1996-04-11 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +16.9%
- 1994-06-30 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.6%
- 1990-08-02 · true for 69 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.2%
- 1988-12-30 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.3%
- 31 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about commodities
- What happens after oil rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after oil doubles in a year?
- What happens after oil rises 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 50% in six months?
- What happens when oil hits an all-time high?
- What happens after gold rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after gold doubles in a year?