What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after Brent crude rises 50% in a year?
It has happened 23 times since 1988. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 16 of 20 times, with a median move of +9.0%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.9%, up 80% of the time.
Crude oil (Brent) up more than 50% over a year. This is true today (2026-09-25).
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.9% 64% up · n 22 · normal +1.3% | +9.0% 80% up · n 20 · normal +11.9% | +34.2% 80% up · n 20 · normal +33.3% |
| Gold | +0.6% 55% up · n 22 · normal +0.1% | +11.8% 75% up · n 20 · normal +4.4% | +39.5% 75% up · n 20 · normal +14.1% |
| Oil | +0.6% 59% up · n 22 · normal +0.8% | +7.1% 65% up · n 20 · normal +4.7% | +4.8% 65% up · n 20 · normal +12.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.04 pts 55% up · n 22 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.22 pts 45% up · n 20 · normal -0.20 pts | -1.02 pts 25% up · n 20 · normal -0.48 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.11 pts 55% up · n 22 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.34 pts 70% up · n 20 · normal +0.00 pts | -0.32 pts 45% up · n 20 · normal -0.33 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 25% up · n 20 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.45 pts 20% up · n 20 · normal -0.30 pts | 0.00 pts 50% up · n 20 · normal -0.80 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-09-04 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2026-07-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2026-03-17 · true for 47 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2021-03-09 · true for 318 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.4%
- 2018-10-02 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.2%
- 2018-04-24 · true for 49 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.1%
- 2017-11-07 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.6%
- 2016-12-20 · true for 45 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.0%
- 2011-04-08 · true for 55 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.3%
- 2011-03-02 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +5.0%
- 2009-11-16 · true for 116 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.2%
- 2007-10-29 · true for 188 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -39.0%
- 2005-12-08 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.3%
- 2005-06-14 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.2%
- 2005-01-27 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.3%
- 2004-08-13 · true for 52 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.6%
- 2004-05-04 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.0%
- 2002-12-11 · true for 56 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.4%
- 2000-08-23 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -22.8%
- 1999-06-15 · true for 248 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.0%
- 1996-10-07 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +39.8%
- 1990-08-06 · true for 86 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.8%
- 1989-10-02 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.2%
- 23 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about commodities
- What happens after oil rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after oil doubles in a year?
- What happens after oil rises 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 50% in six months?
- What happens when oil hits an all-time high?
- What happens after gold rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after gold doubles in a year?