What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after copper falls 30% in three months?
It has happened 7 times since 1960. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 5 of 7 times, with a median move of +16.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.5%, up 75% of the time.
Copper down more than 30% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.8% 71% up · n 7 · normal +1.1% | +16.1% 71% up · n 7 · normal +10.5% | +24.8% 71% up · n 7 · normal +27.9% |
| Gold | +1.9% 50% up · n 6 · normal 0.0% | +6.4% 71% up · n 7 · normal +3.0% | 0.0% 43% up · n 7 · normal +10.6% |
| Oil | 0.0% 17% up · n 6 · normal 0.0% | -7.1% 29% up · n 7 · normal 0.0% | -7.1% 29% up · n 7 · normal +9.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.07 pts 57% up · n 7 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.43 pts 71% up · n 7 · normal +0.06 pts | +0.68 pts 71% up · n 7 · normal -0.05 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.06 pts 14% up · n 7 · normal -0.00 pts | -1.88 pts 14% up · n 7 · normal +0.04 pts | -2.17 pts 29% up · n 7 · normal +0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 43% up · n 7 · normal 0.00 pts | 0.00 pts 29% up · n 7 · normal -0.30 pts | +1.60 pts 86% up · n 7 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-07-12 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.1%
- 2011-10-20 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +17.9%
- 2008-10-01 · true for 73 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.3%
- 1980-06-09 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.1%
- 1974-08-08 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.5%
- 1968-06-10 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.0%
- 1966-10-10 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.9%
- 7 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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