What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens when copper hits an all-time high?
It has happened 20 times since 1960. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 10 of 17 times, with a median move of +6.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 75% of the time.
Copper: % below its all-time high above -0.01. This is true today (2026-09-25).
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.8% 58% up · n 19 · normal +1.1% | +6.1% 59% up · n 17 · normal +10.6% | +9.4% 75% up · n 16 · normal +27.8% |
| Gold | 0.0% 41% up · n 17 · normal 0.0% | +13.1% 59% up · n 17 · normal +2.9% | +20.6% 63% up · n 16 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 29% up · n 17 · normal 0.0% | -0.4% 35% up · n 17 · normal 0.0% | -5.0% 44% up · n 16 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | 0.00 pts 47% up · n 19 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.05 pts 59% up · n 17 · normal +0.06 pts | +0.01 pts 50% up · n 16 · normal -0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.32 pts 53% up · n 17 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.24 pts 53% up · n 17 · normal +0.04 pts | -0.30 pts 38% up · n 16 · normal +0.03 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 32% up · n 19 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.30 pts 35% up · n 17 · normal -0.30 pts | +1.05 pts 69% up · n 16 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-09-08 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2026-06-08 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-11-10 · true for 80 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2024-06-10 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.6%
- 2022-03-04 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -6.5%
- 2021-05-07 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.6%
- 2010-12-08 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.5%
- 2008-07-02 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -28.9%
- 2006-03-17 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.1%
- 2006-02-02 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.0%
- 2005-11-11 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.8%
- 2005-09-01 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.3%
- 1988-12-08 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.1%
- 1974-03-08 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.8%
- 1973-12-10 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -31.3%
- 1973-08-08 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -22.7%
- 1965-11-08 · true for 147 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.5%
- 1964-09-08 · true for 84 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.0%
- 1964-04-08 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.1%
- 1960-02-08 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.4%
- 20 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about commodities
- What happens after oil rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after oil doubles in a year?
- What happens after oil rises 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 50% in six months?
- What happens when oil hits an all-time high?
- What happens after gold rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after gold doubles in a year?