What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after copper rises 30% in three months?
It has happened 22 times since 1960. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 14 of 22 times, with a median move of +5.7%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.5%, up 75% of the time.
Copper up more than 30% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.6% 68% up · n 22 · normal +1.1% | +5.7% 64% up · n 22 · normal +10.5% | +13.1% 73% up · n 22 · normal +27.9% |
| Gold | -0.1% 44% up · n 16 · normal 0.0% | +2.9% 59% up · n 22 · normal +3.0% | +8.6% 59% up · n 22 · normal +10.6% |
| Oil | +3.1% 63% up · n 16 · normal 0.0% | +4.2% 55% up · n 22 · normal 0.0% | +24.6% 64% up · n 22 · normal +9.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.03 pts 36% up · n 22 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.16 pts 55% up · n 22 · normal +0.06 pts | +0.54 pts 59% up · n 22 · normal -0.05 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.28 pts 71% up · n 21 · normal -0.00 pts | +1.46 pts 73% up · n 22 · normal +0.04 pts | +0.76 pts 59% up · n 22 · normal +0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 29% up · n 21 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.15 pts 41% up · n 22 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.85 pts 55% up · n 22 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2021-05-06 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.9%
- 2020-07-21 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +33.8%
- 2010-10-15 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.1%
- 2009-03-19 · true for 79 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +47.9%
- 2008-02-21 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -42.6%
- 2007-04-09 · true for 29 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.5%
- 2006-04-12 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.4%
- 2004-02-12 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.6%
- 1994-08-08 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.4%
- 1988-11-08 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.9%
- 1987-12-08 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.4%
- 1980-03-10 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.5%
- 1979-03-09 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.4%
- 1974-05-08 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.3%
- 1973-09-07 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -31.8%
- 1973-04-09 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.5%
- 1973-03-08 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -14.4%
- 1967-12-08 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.1%
- 1966-03-08 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +0.1%
- 1965-05-10 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.9%
- 1964-10-08 · true for 61 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.8%
- 1964-05-08 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.9%
- 22 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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