What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after copper rises 50% in a year?
It has happened 20 times since 1961. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 16 of 20 times, with a median move of +6.3%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.3%, up 75% of the time.
Copper up more than 50% over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.1% 75% up · n 20 · normal +1.1% | +6.3% 80% up · n 20 · normal +10.3% | +28.3% 95% up · n 20 · normal +27.9% |
| Gold | 0.0% 37% up · n 19 · normal 0.0% | +2.1% 55% up · n 20 · normal +3.4% | +15.2% 65% up · n 20 · normal +11.2% |
| Oil | 0.0% 37% up · n 19 · normal 0.0% | +3.6% 55% up · n 20 · normal 0.0% | +9.9% 65% up · n 20 · normal +10.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.05 pts 55% up · n 20 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.19 pts 60% up · n 20 · normal +0.07 pts | -0.44 pts 45% up · n 20 · normal -0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.21 pts 63% up · n 19 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.94 pts 70% up · n 20 · normal +0.06 pts | -0.34 pts 50% up · n 20 · normal +0.09 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 19% up · n 16 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.50 pts 20% up · n 20 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.70 pts 40% up · n 20 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2021-10-14 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.3%
- 2021-02-19 · true for 114 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.3%
- 2017-10-16 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.9%
- 2017-09-05 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.5%
- 2011-07-18 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.5%
- 2011-06-07 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +2.3%
- 2011-02-03 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.9%
- 2009-10-21 · true for 137 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.1%
- 2005-12-05 · true for 222 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.1%
- 2004-11-17 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.1%
- 2004-02-04 · true for 174 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.6%
- 1994-11-08 · true for 146 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.1%
- 1987-12-08 · true for 168 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.4%
- 1980-02-08 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.7%
- 1979-03-08 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.4%
- 1973-07-09 · true for 252 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -20.2%
- 1969-09-08 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.4%
- 1968-04-08 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.5%
- 1966-02-08 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.2%
- 1964-09-08 · true for 231 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.0%
- 20 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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