What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens when gold hits an all-time high?
It has happened 27 times since 1960. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 21 of 26 times, with a median move of +11.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 75% of the time.
Gold ($/oz): % below its all-time high above -0.01. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.1% 63% up · n 27 · normal +1.1% | +11.5% 81% up · n 26 · normal +10.6% | +19.8% 70% up · n 20 · normal +27.8% |
| Gold | +2.3% 64% up · n 25 · normal 0.0% | +29.8% 85% up · n 26 · normal +2.9% | +33.3% 80% up · n 20 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 48% up · n 25 · normal 0.0% | +9.7% 62% up · n 26 · normal 0.0% | +28.1% 70% up · n 20 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.03 pts 44% up · n 27 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.16 pts 58% up · n 26 · normal +0.06 pts | +0.23 pts 55% up · n 20 · normal -0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.13 pts 62% up · n 26 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.93 pts 58% up · n 26 · normal +0.04 pts | -0.25 pts 40% up · n 20 · normal +0.03 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 33% up · n 27 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.05 pts 50% up · n 26 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.85 pts 65% up · n 20 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-12-22 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-08-29 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.4%
- 2025-06-13 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 2025-01-30 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.3%
- 2024-07-16 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.5%
- 2024-03-01 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.9%
- 2023-12-01 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.3%
- 2020-07-24 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.2%
- 2011-07-12 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.1%
- 2011-03-01 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.5%
- 2010-09-14 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.0%
- 2010-05-11 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.1%
- 2009-09-11 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.4%
- 2007-12-28 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -41.0%
- 2007-09-18 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -23.9%
- 2006-05-04 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.7%
- 1979-06-08 · true for 190 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.5%
- 1979-02-08 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.8%
- 1978-07-10 · true for 107 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.4%
- 1978-04-10 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.2%
- 1974-12-09 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.1%
- 1974-02-08 · true for 83 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.8%
- 1973-03-08 · true for 128 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.4%
- 1971-11-08 · true for 233 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.8%
- 1971-09-08 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.8%
- 1969-01-08 · true for 123 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.1%
- 1960-02-08 · true for 2130 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.4%
- 27 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about commodities
- What happens after oil rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after oil doubles in a year?
- What happens after oil rises 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 50% in six months?
- What happens when oil hits an all-time high?
- What happens after gold rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after gold doubles in a year?