What happened last time? › Other countries
What happens when Japan's inflation is above 3%?
It has happened 23 times since 1947. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 20 of 23 times, with a median move of +11.0%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.5%, up 75% of the time.
Japan inflation (y/y %) above 3. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.8% 83% up · n 23 · normal +1.1% | +11.0% 87% up · n 23 · normal +10.5% | +26.1% 95% up · n 21 · normal +29.0% |
| Gold | 0.0% 41% up · n 17 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 47% up · n 17 · normal +2.9% | 0.0% 27% up · n 15 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 35% up · n 17 · normal 0.0% | -3.6% 24% up · n 17 · normal 0.0% | -10.0% 13% up · n 15 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.04 pts 35% up · n 20 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.27 pts 45% up · n 20 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.15 pts 50% up · n 18 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.07 pts 57% up · n 23 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.16 pts 48% up · n 23 · normal -0.01 pts | -1.82 pts 33% up · n 21 · normal -0.03 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 41% up · n 22 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.30 pts 64% up · n 22 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.80 pts 60% up · n 20 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-01-21 · true for 168 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.7%
- 2024-09-23 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.4%
- 2022-10-21 · true for 293 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.6%
- 2014-05-21 · true for 129 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.9%
- 1991-12-23 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.0%
- 1990-11-21 · true for 230 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.3%
- 1990-02-21 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.4%
- 1989-08-21 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.5%
- 1985-09-23 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.9%
- 1982-09-21 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +34.9%
- 1979-05-21 · true for 737 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.5%
- 1967-09-21 · true for 2873 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.1%
- 1964-08-21 · true for 713 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.6%
- 1964-05-21 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.6%
- 1961-01-23 · true for 815 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.3%
- 1960-10-21 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.6%
- 1960-02-23 · true for 147 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.5%
- 1957-08-21 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.7%
- 1957-06-21 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.9%
- 1957-02-21 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.0%
- 1953-03-23 · true for 441 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.2%
- 1951-03-21 · true for 441 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.4%
- 1947-09-22 · true for 687 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.4%
- 23 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- Euro area, UK and Japan figures are today's revised numbers, dated by each source's usual release delay: close to what was known, not the exact first print.
More about other countries
- What happens when euro area inflation is above 5%?
- What happens when the ECB raises rates 2 points in a year?
- What happens when euro area unemployment is above 10%?
- What happens when the German 10-year yield is below zero?
- What happens when UK inflation is above 8%?
- What happens when the Bank of England raises rates 2 points in a year?
- What happens after UK share prices fall 20% in a year?
- What happens after Japanese share prices fall 30% in a year?