What happened last time? › Other countries
What happens when UK inflation is above 8%?
It has happened 16 times since 1916. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 12 of 14 times, with a median move of +7.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.4%, up 69% of the time.
UK inflation (y/y %) above 8. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.0% 57% up · n 14 · normal +1.1% | +7.2% 86% up · n 14 · normal +9.4% | +24.0% 71% up · n 14 · normal +25.7% |
| Gold | +2.9% 88% up · n 8 · normal 0.0% | +37.6% 75% up · n 8 · normal +2.9% | +57.8% 88% up · n 8 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 25% up · n 8 · normal 0.0% | +14.6% 63% up · n 8 · normal 0.0% | +67.9% 63% up · n 8 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | 0.00 pts 33% up · n 9 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.67 pts 67% up · n 9 · normal +0.09 pts | +1.08 pts 78% up · n 9 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.20 pts 63% up · n 16 · normal 0.00 pts | -1.87 pts 38% up · n 16 · normal -0.01 pts | -1.46 pts 38% up · n 16 · normal -0.05 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 45% up · n 11 · normal 0.00 pts | 0.00 pts 45% up · n 11 · normal -0.20 pts | +1.20 pts 73% up · n 11 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-05-18 · true for 291 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.0%
- 1991-05-20 · true for 84 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.8%
- 1990-10-18 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.4%
- 1979-05-18 · true for 821 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.4%
- 1979-02-20 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.1%
- 1973-05-18 · true for 1263 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.1%
- 1972-03-20 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.1%
- 1971-02-18 · true for 255 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.9%
- 1956-05-18 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.6%
- 1951-06-18 · true for 388 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.3%
- 1948-03-18 · true for 116 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.5%
- 1947-12-18 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.9%
- 1942-08-18 · true for 51 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +36.5%
- 1939-10-18 · true for 677 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.5%
- 1920-05-18 · true for 274 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1916-02-18 · true for 1065 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 16 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- Euro area, UK and Japan figures are today's revised numbers, dated by each source's usual release delay: close to what was known, not the exact first print.
More about other countries
- What happens when euro area inflation is above 5%?
- What happens when the ECB raises rates 2 points in a year?
- What happens when euro area unemployment is above 10%?
- What happens when the German 10-year yield is below zero?
- What happens when the Bank of England raises rates 2 points in a year?
- What happens after UK share prices fall 20% in a year?
- What happens when Japan's inflation is above 3%?
- What happens after Japanese share prices fall 30% in a year?