What happened last time? › Other countries
What happens when the Bank of England raises rates 2 points in a year?
It has happened 10 times since 1947. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 7 of 10 times, with a median move of +4.8%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.4%, up 75% of the time.
Bank of England rate up more than 2 points over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -0.0% 50% up · n 10 · normal +1.1% | +4.8% 70% up · n 10 · normal +10.4% | +19.7% 80% up · n 10 · normal +28.8% |
| Gold | +0.4% 56% up · n 9 · normal 0.0% | +16.1% 70% up · n 10 · normal +2.9% | +37.3% 70% up · n 10 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 33% up · n 9 · normal 0.0% | +28.0% 70% up · n 10 · normal 0.0% | +45.6% 60% up · n 10 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.01 pts 50% up · n 10 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.30 pts 70% up · n 10 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.55 pts 60% up · n 10 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.04 pts 40% up · n 10 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.91 pts 70% up · n 10 · normal -0.02 pts | +0.23 pts 50% up · n 10 · normal -0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.05 pts 30% up · n 10 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.20 pts 40% up · n 10 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.70 pts 60% up · n 10 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-09-23 · true for 310 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.0%
- 1989-10-09 · true for 34 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.2%
- 1988-10-24 · true for 213 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.8%
- 1985-01-15 · true for 124 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.9%
- 1984-07-12 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.8%
- 1978-08-09 · true for 475 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.9%
- 1976-10-08 · true for 102 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.4%
- 1973-07-24 · true for 258 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.4%
- 1972-10-17 · true for 170 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.3%
- 1964-11-24 · true for 65 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.2%
- 10 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about other countries
- What happens when euro area inflation is above 5%?
- What happens when the ECB raises rates 2 points in a year?
- What happens when euro area unemployment is above 10%?
- What happens when the German 10-year yield is below zero?
- What happens when UK inflation is above 8%?
- What happens after UK share prices fall 20% in a year?
- What happens when Japan's inflation is above 3%?
- What happens after Japanese share prices fall 30% in a year?