What happened last time? › Other countries
What happens when the ECB raises rates 2 points in a year?
It has happened 2 times since 2000. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 1 of 2 times, with a median move of -0.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.0%, up 75% of the time.
ECB policy rate up more than 2 points over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.2% 100% up · n 2 · normal +1.2% | -0.1% 50% up · n 2 · normal +11.0% | +26.4% 50% up · n 2 · normal +30.7% |
| Gold | +2.9% 50% up · n 2 · normal +0.7% | +10.7% 100% up · n 2 · normal +10.8% | +89.5% 100% up · n 2 · normal +42.9% |
| Oil | +3.8% 100% up · n 2 · normal +1.2% | -17.6% 0% up · n 2 · normal +5.6% | -15.0% 0% up · n 2 · normal +16.5% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.07 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.49 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal -0.11 pts | -0.50 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal -0.25 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.31 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal 0.00 pts | -2.33 pts 0% up · n 2 · normal +0.03 pts | -2.81 pts 0% up · n 2 · normal -0.03 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 0% up · n 2 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.50 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal -0.20 pts | +1.55 pts 100% up · n 2 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-12-22 · true for 251 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.4%
- 2000-10-09 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -24.6%
- 2 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about other countries
- What happens when euro area inflation is above 5%?
- What happens when euro area unemployment is above 10%?
- What happens when the German 10-year yield is below zero?
- What happens when UK inflation is above 8%?
- What happens when the Bank of England raises rates 2 points in a year?
- What happens after UK share prices fall 20% in a year?
- What happens when Japan's inflation is above 3%?
- What happens after Japanese share prices fall 30% in a year?