What happened last time? › Other countries
What happens after UK share prices fall 20% in a year?
It has happened 11 times since 1959. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 8 of 11 times, with a median move of +16.0%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.3%, up 74% of the time.
UK share prices (monthly, OECD) down more than 20% over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.6% 73% up · n 11 · normal +1.1% | +16.0% 73% up · n 11 · normal +10.3% | +34.3% 91% up · n 11 · normal +27.4% |
| Gold | +1.8% 64% up · n 11 · normal 0.0% | +11.2% 64% up · n 11 · normal +2.9% | +21.9% 64% up · n 11 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 36% up · n 11 · normal 0.0% | +36.0% 100% up · n 11 · normal 0.0% | +118.3% 100% up · n 11 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.01 pts 55% up · n 11 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.11 pts 55% up · n 11 · normal +0.05 pts | -0.13 pts 36% up · n 11 · normal -0.08 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.15 pts 64% up · n 11 · normal -0.00 pts | +1.04 pts 73% up · n 11 · normal +0.04 pts | +0.73 pts 55% up · n 11 · normal +0.02 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.10 pts 56% up · n 9 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.40 pts 64% up · n 11 · normal -0.30 pts | +1.20 pts 73% up · n 11 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-12-01 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +23.2%
- 2020-04-02 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +59.1%
- 2008-11-03 · true for 187 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.2%
- 2002-11-04 · true for 165 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 2002-08-02 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.4%
- 2001-10-02 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.3%
- 1988-10-03 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.7%
- 1988-08-01 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.3%
- 1988-07-01 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +17.0%
- 1974-01-02 · true for 294 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.1%
- 1973-09-04 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -34.3%
- 11 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about other countries
- What happens when euro area inflation is above 5%?
- What happens when the ECB raises rates 2 points in a year?
- What happens when euro area unemployment is above 10%?
- What happens when the German 10-year yield is below zero?
- What happens when UK inflation is above 8%?
- What happens when the Bank of England raises rates 2 points in a year?
- What happens when Japan's inflation is above 3%?
- What happens after Japanese share prices fall 30% in a year?