What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after natural gas doubles in a year?
It has happened 20 times since 1998. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 11 of 18 times, with a median move of +10.3%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.4%, up 76% of the time.
Natural gas (Henry Hub) up more than 100% over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.8% 65% up · n 20 · normal +1.3% | +10.3% 61% up · n 18 · normal +11.4% | +29.9% 81% up · n 16 · normal +29.0% |
| Gold | +2.1% 60% up · n 20 · normal +0.5% | +7.0% 78% up · n 18 · normal +9.2% | +44.0% 88% up · n 16 · normal +38.8% |
| Oil | -2.3% 45% up · n 20 · normal +1.3% | -6.0% 39% up · n 18 · normal +7.5% | -9.3% 44% up · n 16 · normal +20.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.10 pts 40% up · n 20 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.08 pts 56% up · n 18 · normal -0.08 pts | +0.12 pts 50% up · n 16 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.09 pts 67% up · n 18 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.40 pts 44% up · n 18 · normal +0.18 pts | -0.78 pts 44% up · n 16 · normal -0.01 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.05 pts 33% up · n 18 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.10 pts 44% up · n 18 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.25 pts 50% up · n 16 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-01-22 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-11-03 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-01-17 · true for 48 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.7%
- 2024-01-12 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +21.8%
- 2022-12-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +23.7%
- 2022-03-23 · true for 88 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.4%
- 2022-01-28 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.2%
- 2021-06-14 · true for 74 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.2%
- 2021-02-10 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 2016-12-12 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.0%
- 2014-02-05 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.7%
- 2013-04-02 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.4%
- 2010-09-07 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +9.8%
- 2008-06-30 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.2%
- 2005-09-02 · true for 58 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.6%
- 2002-11-21 · true for 72 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.9%
- 2002-10-01 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.1%
- 2000-11-13 · true for 67 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.7%
- 2000-09-20 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -32.2%
- 2000-06-27 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.5%
- 20 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about commodities
- What happens after oil rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after oil doubles in a year?
- What happens after oil rises 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 50% in six months?
- What happens when oil hits an all-time high?
- What happens after gold rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after gold doubles in a year?