What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after natural gas falls 30% in three months?
It has happened 35 times since 1997. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 24 of 34 times, with a median move of +11.7%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.6%, up 77% of the time.
Natural gas (Henry Hub) down more than 30% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.6% 74% up · n 35 · normal +1.3% | +11.7% 71% up · n 34 · normal +11.6% | +32.4% 77% up · n 31 · normal +29.7% |
| Gold | +1.1% 57% up · n 35 · normal +0.4% | +16.5% 79% up · n 34 · normal +8.7% | +44.9% 81% up · n 31 · normal +37.1% |
| Oil | +1.2% 57% up · n 35 · normal +1.2% | +3.7% 59% up · n 34 · normal +6.6% | +27.9% 71% up · n 31 · normal +22.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.02 pts 46% up · n 35 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.28 pts 32% up · n 34 · normal -0.11 pts | -0.57 pts 35% up · n 31 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.15 pts 41% up · n 32 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.45 pts 38% up · n 34 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.17 pts 39% up · n 31 · normal +0.09 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 32% up · n 34 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.15 pts 44% up · n 34 · normal -0.30 pts | 0.00 pts 39% up · n 31 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-02-25 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-04-17 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +34.9%
- 2024-11-08 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.2%
- 2024-01-30 · true for 58 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.6%
- 2023-06-01 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.0%
- 2022-10-20 · true for 112 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 2021-12-14 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.8%
- 2021-05-13 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.2%
- 2020-02-03 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.8%
- 2019-06-03 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +12.3%
- 2019-02-11 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.9%
- 2018-04-03 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.9%
- 2017-03-08 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +15.9%
- 2015-11-02 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.4%
- 2015-02-05 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.8%
- 2014-05-07 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.2%
- 2012-01-17 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.8%
- 2011-11-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +19.7%
- 2010-10-22 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.7%
- 2010-03-19 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.3%
- 2009-08-28 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.5%
- 2008-12-12 · true for 53 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.8%
- 2008-08-15 · true for 47 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -22.7%
- 2007-09-04 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -14.4%
- 2006-09-15 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.5%
- 2005-12-27 · true for 53 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.6%
- 2004-09-03 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.4%
- 2003-05-27 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.2%
- 2002-01-28 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -24.2%
- 2001-11-15 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -20.3%
- 2001-06-26 · true for 53 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -20.0%
- 2001-03-05 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.7%
- 1999-11-24 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.7%
- 1998-01-20 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.4%
- 1997-04-08 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +43.8%
- 35 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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