What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after natural gas falls 50% in six months?
It has happened 16 times since 1997. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 13 of 15 times, with a median move of +10.4%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.5%, up 77% of the time.
Natural gas (Henry Hub) down more than 50% over 6 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.9% 75% up · n 16 · normal +1.3% | +10.4% 87% up · n 15 · normal +11.5% | +35.3% 75% up · n 12 · normal +29.5% |
| Gold | +0.8% 56% up · n 16 · normal +0.5% | +18.7% 80% up · n 15 · normal +8.9% | +63.4% 83% up · n 12 · normal +37.6% |
| Oil | -1.5% 50% up · n 16 · normal +1.1% | -7.8% 40% up · n 15 · normal +6.8% | +9.5% 58% up · n 12 · normal +22.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.05 pts 56% up · n 16 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.08 pts 53% up · n 15 · normal -0.10 pts | -0.36 pts 25% up · n 12 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.07 pts 47% up · n 15 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.97 pts 27% up · n 15 · normal +0.12 pts | -0.71 pts 33% up · n 12 · normal +0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 29% up · n 14 · normal 0.00 pts | 0.00 pts 47% up · n 15 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.75 pts 58% up · n 12 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-07-23 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-07-18 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.4%
- 2024-07-12 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.5%
- 2024-03-13 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.9%
- 2023-01-10 · true for 110 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.1%
- 2022-11-04 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.6%
- 2021-08-17 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.9%
- 2018-07-03 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +10.4%
- 2014-08-06 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.5%
- 2009-09-03 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.1%
- 2008-12-05 · true for 47 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.2%
- 2006-06-08 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.9%
- 2006-03-22 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.9%
- 2003-08-25 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.3%
- 2001-06-05 · true for 87 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.2%
- 1997-07-17 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +27.4%
- 16 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about commodities
- What happens after oil rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after oil doubles in a year?
- What happens after oil rises 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 50% in six months?
- What happens when oil hits an all-time high?
- What happens after gold rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after gold doubles in a year?