What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after natural gas rises 30% in three months?
It has happened 43 times since 1997. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 32 of 42 times, with a median move of +9.3%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.6%, up 77% of the time.
Natural gas (Henry Hub) up more than 30% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.6% 74% up · n 43 · normal +1.3% | +9.3% 76% up · n 42 · normal +11.6% | +29.9% 71% up · n 38 · normal +29.7% |
| Gold | +1.3% 58% up · n 43 · normal +0.4% | +8.1% 69% up · n 42 · normal +8.7% | +40.6% 76% up · n 38 · normal +37.1% |
| Oil | +0.8% 53% up · n 43 · normal +1.2% | +9.6% 62% up · n 42 · normal +6.6% | +17.1% 66% up · n 38 · normal +22.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.03 pts 53% up · n 43 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.11 pts 55% up · n 42 · normal -0.11 pts | -0.34 pts 39% up · n 38 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.05 pts 55% up · n 42 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.40 pts 62% up · n 42 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.07 pts 50% up · n 38 · normal +0.09 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 21% up · n 38 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.30 pts 36% up · n 42 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.40 pts 45% up · n 38 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-11-19 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2024-11-21 · true for 70 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.0%
- 2024-10-02 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.6%
- 2024-05-14 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.3%
- 2024-01-12 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +21.8%
- 2023-06-27 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.1%
- 2022-07-25 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.1%
- 2022-03-07 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.1%
- 2021-06-14 · true for 96 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.2%
- 2020-08-11 · true for 67 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.4%
- 2019-11-04 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.4%
- 2018-11-12 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.4%
- 2018-01-02 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.9%
- 2017-02-03 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.2%
- 2016-12-06 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.9%
- 2016-05-31 · true for 66 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.0%
- 2014-01-22 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.8%
- 2013-04-11 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.0%
- 2012-11-15 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.9%
- 2012-09-12 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.2%
- 2012-06-27 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.1%
- 2011-01-04 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.6%
- 2009-10-20 · true for 55 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.0%
- 2008-02-19 · true for 57 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -41.5%
- 2007-11-26 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -39.1%
- 2007-03-30 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.4%
- 2006-11-30 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.7%
- 2005-08-23 · true for 61 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.2%
- 2005-04-04 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.0%
- 2004-11-29 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.7%
- 2004-10-27 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +4.8%
- 2004-05-26 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.4%
- 2003-12-05 · true for 35 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.2%
- 2002-10-01 · true for 90 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.1%
- 2002-02-25 · true for 55 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -24.4%
- 2000-11-27 · true for 49 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.8%
- 2000-10-17 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -20.2%
- 2000-04-07 · true for 65 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -25.6%
- 1999-10-22 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +7.3%
- 1999-08-25 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.2%
- 1999-05-27 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.5%
- 1998-11-30 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.4%
- 1997-09-19 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.3%
- 43 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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