What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after natural gas rises 50% in a year?
It has happened 28 times since 1998. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 19 of 26 times, with a median move of +11.3%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.4%, up 76% of the time.
Natural gas (Henry Hub) up more than 50% over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.3% 61% up · n 28 · normal +1.3% | +11.3% 73% up · n 26 · normal +11.4% | +28.8% 67% up · n 24 · normal +29.0% |
| Gold | +1.5% 64% up · n 28 · normal +0.5% | +7.5% 65% up · n 26 · normal +9.2% | +44.3% 88% up · n 24 · normal +38.8% |
| Oil | +4.4% 68% up · n 28 · normal +1.3% | +6.0% 58% up · n 26 · normal +7.5% | +23.1% 58% up · n 24 · normal +20.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.01 pts 43% up · n 28 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.14 pts 46% up · n 26 · normal -0.08 pts | -0.60 pts 29% up · n 24 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.05 pts 56% up · n 27 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.38 pts 62% up · n 26 · normal +0.18 pts | -0.38 pts 42% up · n 24 · normal -0.01 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 20% up · n 25 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.30 pts 31% up · n 26 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.70 pts 54% up · n 24 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-01-22 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-10-20 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-01-16 · true for 109 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.9%
- 2024-01-12 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +21.8%
- 2022-11-30 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.0%
- 2021-02-01 · true for 356 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.5%
- 2019-03-04 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +7.5%
- 2018-11-19 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 2018-01-02 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.9%
- 2017-11-10 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.7%
- 2016-11-30 · true for 93 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.4%
- 2014-01-23 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.2%
- 2013-03-05 · true for 76 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.7%
- 2013-01-22 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +23.6%
- 2010-08-24 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.0%
- 2008-05-08 · true for 52 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -33.5%
- 2008-01-14 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -38.4%
- 2007-10-15 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -35.6%
- 2005-08-23 · true for 94 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.2%
- 2005-04-04 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.0%
- 2004-10-27 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.8%
- 2003-12-09 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +11.6%
- 2002-09-20 · true for 213 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.6%
- 2000-05-19 · true for 231 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.2%
- 2000-01-27 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.1%
- 1999-12-02 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.7%
- 1999-10-15 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.2%
- 1999-08-20 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.6%
- 28 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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