What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after silver falls 30% in three months?
It has happened 5 times since 1960. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 3 of 5 times, with a median move of +23.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.5%, up 75% of the time.
Silver ($/oz) down more than 30% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +6.5% 60% up · n 5 · normal +1.1% | +23.6% 60% up · n 5 · normal +10.5% | +30.4% 80% up · n 5 · normal +27.9% |
| Gold | +7.3% 75% up · n 4 · normal 0.0% | +2.5% 60% up · n 5 · normal +3.0% | +1.1% 60% up · n 5 · normal +10.6% |
| Oil | -6.9% 25% up · n 4 · normal 0.0% | -0.5% 40% up · n 5 · normal 0.0% | -17.1% 20% up · n 5 · normal +9.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.09 pts 60% up · n 5 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.37 pts 80% up · n 5 · normal +0.06 pts | -0.79 pts 20% up · n 5 · normal -0.05 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.23 pts 20% up · n 5 · normal -0.00 pts | -3.78 pts 20% up · n 5 · normal +0.04 pts | -1.97 pts 20% up · n 5 · normal +0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 40% up · n 5 · normal 0.00 pts | +1.70 pts 80% up · n 5 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.50 pts 80% up · n 5 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-03-18 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +63.3%
- 2013-06-20 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.6%
- 2008-09-09 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.6%
- 1981-04-08 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.5%
- 1980-05-08 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.1%
- 5 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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- What happens when oil hits an all-time high?
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