What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after silver rises 30% in three months?
It has happened 28 times since 1960. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 22 of 26 times, with a median move of +9.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.5%, up 75% of the time.
Silver ($/oz) up more than 30% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.1% 75% up · n 28 · normal +1.1% | +9.6% 85% up · n 26 · normal +10.5% | +38.5% 84% up · n 25 · normal +27.9% |
| Gold | +0.7% 52% up · n 25 · normal 0.0% | +7.3% 62% up · n 26 · normal +3.0% | +2.5% 52% up · n 25 · normal +10.6% |
| Oil | -1.0% 36% up · n 25 · normal 0.0% | -3.8% 38% up · n 26 · normal 0.0% | +13.7% 52% up · n 25 · normal +9.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.04 pts 57% up · n 28 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.29 pts 65% up · n 26 · normal +0.06 pts | +0.36 pts 60% up · n 25 · normal -0.05 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.04 pts 38% up · n 26 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.05 pts 46% up · n 26 · normal +0.04 pts | +0.21 pts 52% up · n 25 · normal +0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.05 pts 33% up · n 24 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.35 pts 23% up · n 26 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.10 pts 32% up · n 25 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-01-08 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-11-10 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2024-05-15 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.5%
- 2022-12-27 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.9%
- 2020-06-15 · true for 59 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +38.5%
- 2019-09-04 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +17.6%
- 2016-07-01 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 2012-09-27 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +16.9%
- 2011-04-05 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.0%
- 2010-10-11 · true for 56 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.6%
- 2009-10-06 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.0%
- 2009-01-26 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.6%
- 2008-02-27 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -45.4%
- 2006-03-30 · true for 39 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.3%
- 2006-01-31 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +12.4%
- 2004-03-18 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.0%
- 2004-01-09 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.7%
- 1998-01-30 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.5%
- 1997-12-16 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.0%
- 1993-12-13 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -3.3%
- 1993-07-06 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.1%
- 1993-05-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.0%
- 1987-04-14 · true for 45 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.7%
- 1983-02-08 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.0%
- 1982-10-08 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.3%
- 1979-10-08 · true for 125 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.2%
- 1974-03-08 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.8%
- 1967-09-08 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.2%
- 28 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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