What happened last time? › Commodities
What happens after silver rises 50% in a year?
It has happened 25 times since 1961. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 17 of 24 times, with a median move of +6.4%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.3%, up 75% of the time.
Silver ($/oz) up more than 50% over a year. This is true today (2026-09-25).
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.8% 64% up · n 25 · normal +1.1% | +6.4% 71% up · n 24 · normal +10.3% | +23.2% 74% up · n 23 · normal +27.9% |
| Gold | +2.6% 67% up · n 24 · normal 0.0% | +11.8% 63% up · n 24 · normal +3.4% | +7.0% 70% up · n 23 · normal +11.2% |
| Oil | +0.1% 50% up · n 24 · normal 0.0% | +10.2% 63% up · n 24 · normal 0.0% | +25.7% 70% up · n 23 · normal +10.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.07 pts 64% up · n 25 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.42 pts 71% up · n 24 · normal +0.07 pts | +0.30 pts 61% up · n 23 · normal -0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.01 pts 50% up · n 24 · normal -0.00 pts | +1.37 pts 79% up · n 24 · normal +0.06 pts | +0.18 pts 61% up · n 23 · normal +0.09 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 24% up · n 25 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.35 pts 33% up · n 24 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.70 pts 43% up · n 23 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-11-10 · true for 215 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2024-10-02 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.6%
- 2020-12-17 · true for 93 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.1%
- 2020-11-06 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +33.9%
- 2020-07-27 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.9%
- 2010-11-01 · true for 213 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.9%
- 2010-04-21 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.9%
- 2009-09-10 · true for 77 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.3%
- 2008-03-03 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -47.7%
- 2007-02-13 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.3%
- 2006-03-23 · true for 164 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.3%
- 2004-10-08 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.6%
- 2004-03-01 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.7%
- 1998-02-04 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.0%
- 1994-03-22 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.7%
- 1987-04-21 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.6%
- 1983-05-09 · true for 107 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.2%
- 1983-02-08 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.0%
- 1979-06-08 · true for 336 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.5%
- 1974-11-08 · true for 40 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.2%
- 1973-11-08 · true for 230 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -30.0%
- 1973-07-09 · true for 44 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -20.2%
- 1973-04-09 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.5%
- 1968-04-08 · true for 75 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.5%
- 1967-12-08 · true for 61 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.1%
- 25 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about commodities
- What happens after oil rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after oil doubles in a year?
- What happens after oil rises 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 30% in three months?
- What happens after oil falls 50% in six months?
- What happens when oil hits an all-time high?
- What happens after gold rises 50% in a year?
- What happens after gold doubles in a year?