What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
It has happened 35 times since 1927. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 21 of 35 times, with a median move of +2.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.4%, up 69% of the time.
S&P 500 more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.4% 54% up · n 35 · normal +1.1% | +2.5% 60% up · n 35 · normal +9.4% | +27.3% 77% up · n 35 · normal +25.7% |
| Gold | -0.1% 30% up · n 20 · normal 0.0% | +9.4% 65% up · n 20 · normal +2.9% | +27.5% 75% up · n 20 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 25% up · n 20 · normal 0.0% | -2.6% 25% up · n 20 · normal 0.0% | -6.7% 45% up · n 20 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.04 pts 38% up · n 21 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.16 pts 48% up · n 21 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.12 pts 43% up · n 21 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | 0.00 pts 44% up · n 34 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.66 pts 31% up · n 35 · normal -0.01 pts | -1.23 pts 46% up · n 35 · normal -0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.10 pts 67% up · n 21 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.40 pts 68% up · n 22 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.35 pts 55% up · n 22 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-12-19 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.9%
- 2022-09-21 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.3%
- 2022-06-13 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 2020-03-12 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +59.0%
- 2008-09-04 · true for 250 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.8%
- 2008-07-09 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -29.1%
- 2002-06-21 · true for 198 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.7%
- 2002-05-07 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -11.4%
- 2001-06-15 · true for 88 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.1%
- 2001-03-12 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.2%
- 1987-10-19 · true for 182 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 1982-08-04 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +52.0%
- 1982-03-05 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +40.5%
- 1974-05-17 · true for 177 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.5%
- 1973-11-27 · true for 34 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -26.9%
- 1970-04-22 · true for 86 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.9%
- 1966-10-03 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.0%
- 1966-08-29 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +24.6%
- 1962-09-21 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.1%
- 1962-05-28 · true for 47 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.1%
- 1957-10-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.0%
- 1949-06-13 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +42.1%
- 1946-09-03 · true for 189 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.2%
- 1942-03-06 · true for 92 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.4%
- 1941-12-09 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.8%
- 1941-01-30 · true for 73 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.9%
- 1940-05-14 · true for 106 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.7%
- 1939-08-21 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.1%
- 1939-06-28 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.9%
- 1939-03-31 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.9%
- 1937-09-07 · true for 306 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.5%
- 1934-05-10 · true for 219 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.0%
- 1933-09-27 · true for 35 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.9%
- 1933-07-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.9%
- 1929-10-28 · true for 1014 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.5%
- 35 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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