What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens when the S&P 500 hits an all-time high?
It has happened 114 times since 1927. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 79 of 111 times, with a median move of +7.7%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.4%, up 69% of the time.
S&P 500: % below its all-time high above -0.01. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.1% 66% up · n 114 · normal +1.1% | +7.7% 71% up · n 111 · normal +9.4% | +24.2% 78% up · n 106 · normal +25.7% |
| Gold | 0.0% 34% up · n 95 · normal 0.0% | +0.5% 51% up · n 93 · normal +2.9% | +4.3% 57% up · n 88 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 35% up · n 95 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 39% up · n 93 · normal 0.0% | -6.3% 42% up · n 88 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.04 pts 60% up · n 108 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.27 pts 62% up · n 105 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.15 pts 54% up · n 100 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.00 pts 40% up · n 111 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.38 pts 58% up · n 111 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.20 pts 54% up · n 106 · normal -0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 32% up · n 101 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.50 pts 19% up · n 105 · normal -0.20 pts | -0.95 pts 34% up · n 100 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-08-04 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2026-04-15 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-12-11 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-06-27 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.1%
- 2025-01-23 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.0%
- 2024-09-19 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.6%
- 2024-05-15 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.5%
- 2024-01-19 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.9%
- 2021-10-21 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.5%
- 2021-06-10 · true for 29 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.0%
- 2020-11-13 · true for 37 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.6%
- 2020-08-18 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.8%
- 2019-10-28 · true for 35 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.6%
- 2019-06-20 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.9%
- 2019-04-23 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.6%
- 2018-08-24 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.0%
- 2017-09-11 · true for 46 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.1%
- 2017-05-05 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.0%
- 2016-11-21 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.2%
- 2016-07-11 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.5%
- 2015-04-24 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.2%
- 2015-02-13 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.1%
- 2014-10-31 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.0%
- 2014-05-12 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.7%
- 2014-02-27 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.5%
- 2013-09-18 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.6%
- 2013-07-11 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.5%
- 2013-03-28 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.4%
- 2007-10-05 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -29.4%
- 2007-07-12 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.9%
- 2007-05-30 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.6%
- 2000-03-21 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -24.9%
- 1999-11-16 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.1%
- 1999-06-30 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.1%
- 1999-03-08 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.7%
- 1998-11-23 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.2%
- 1998-06-24 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.1%
- 1998-01-29 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.8%
- 1997-12-05 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +19.6%
- 1997-10-02 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.4%
- 1997-05-05 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +34.4%
- 1997-01-10 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.1%
- 1996-09-13 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.8%
- 1996-05-13 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.9%
- 1996-01-29 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.6%
- 1995-09-05 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 1995-02-14 · true for 53 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.9%
- 1993-12-27 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.7%
- 1993-10-14 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.5%
- 1993-08-19 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.6%
- 1993-03-08 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.5%
- 1993-02-01 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.4%
- 1992-11-20 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.4%
- 1992-09-14 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +8.1%
- 1992-07-29 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.6%
- 1991-12-24 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.9%
- 1991-11-12 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.4%
- 1991-08-06 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.1%
- 1991-02-13 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.1%
- 1990-07-16 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +3.4%
The 60 most recent of 114.
Open this in the lab and play one of 7 episodes- 114 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about stock markets
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 10% in a month?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 5% in a week?
- What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
- What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
- What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
- What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?
- What happens after the Dow falls 5% in a week?