What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
It has happened 48 times since 1928. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 31 of 48 times, with a median move of +11.4%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.3%, up 69% of the time.
S&P 500: % above its 200-day average below -10. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.2% 52% up · n 48 · normal +1.0% | +11.4% 65% up · n 48 · normal +9.3% | +29.7% 77% up · n 47 · normal +26.0% |
| Gold | +0.2% 50% up · n 30 · normal 0.0% | +6.5% 63% up · n 30 · normal +2.9% | +20.0% 69% up · n 29 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 40% up · n 30 · normal 0.0% | -5.2% 40% up · n 30 · normal 0.0% | +25.0% 59% up · n 29 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.01 pts 42% up · n 31 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.26 pts 35% up · n 31 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.58 pts 33% up · n 30 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | 0.00 pts 43% up · n 47 · normal 0.00 pts | -1.18 pts 23% up · n 48 · normal -0.01 pts | -1.81 pts 38% up · n 47 · normal -0.01 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.10 pts 53% up · n 32 · normal 0.00 pts | +1.20 pts 66% up · n 32 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.60 pts 65% up · n 31 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-04-04 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.7%
- 2022-09-21 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.3%
- 2022-05-09 · true for 37 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.2%
- 2020-03-11 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +43.7%
- 2018-12-20 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.6%
- 2016-02-11 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +26.6%
- 2015-08-25 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 2011-08-08 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 2008-09-15 · true for 152 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.7%
- 2008-07-02 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.9%
- 2008-01-17 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -36.2%
- 2003-02-07 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.7%
- 2002-06-21 · true for 97 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.7%
- 2001-09-06 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.2%
- 2001-02-21 · true for 37 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.9%
- 2000-12-20 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.9%
- 1998-10-08 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +39.2%
- 1990-09-24 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.3%
- 1990-08-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +28.4%
- 1987-10-19 · true for 77 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 1982-08-06 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +56.0%
- 1982-02-22 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.4%
- 1981-09-08 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.6%
- 1974-04-24 · true for 149 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.7%
- 1973-11-26 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.1%
- 1970-04-27 · true for 67 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.4%
- 1970-01-29 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.9%
- 1969-07-28 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.8%
- 1966-08-18 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.2%
- 1962-05-23 · true for 81 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.7%
- 1957-10-10 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.5%
- 1949-06-13 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +42.1%
- 1947-04-14 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.2%
- 1946-09-03 · true for 93 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.2%
- 1942-02-10 · true for 87 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.5%
- 1941-12-09 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.8%
- 1940-05-14 · true for 88 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.7%
- 1939-06-29 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.5%
- 1939-03-31 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.9%
- 1937-09-07 · true for 235 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.5%
- 1937-06-14 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -36.6%
- 1935-03-12 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +82.4%
- 1934-07-23 · true for 59 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.4%
- 1933-02-23 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +96.0%
- 1931-04-07 · true for 369 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -59.9%
- 1930-09-22 · true for 122 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -46.5%
- 1930-06-12 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -37.9%
- 1929-10-28 · true for 90 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.5%
- 48 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about stock markets
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 10% in a month?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 5% in a week?
- What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
- What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
- What happens when the S&P 500 hits an all-time high?
- What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?
- What happens after the Dow falls 5% in a week?