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What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
It has happened 15 times since 1927. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 11 of 15 times, with a median move of +17.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.4%, up 69% of the time.
S&P 500 more than 30% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +5.6% 67% up · n 15 · normal +1.1% | +17.2% 73% up · n 15 · normal +9.4% | +36.0% 80% up · n 15 · normal +25.7% |
| Gold | -3.3% 20% up · n 10 · normal 0.0% | +13.2% 80% up · n 10 · normal +2.9% | +36.0% 70% up · n 10 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | -6.0% 20% up · n 10 · normal 0.0% | -1.6% 50% up · n 10 · normal 0.0% | +82.5% 90% up · n 10 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.14 pts 30% up · n 10 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.03 pts 50% up · n 10 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.56 pts 30% up · n 10 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | 0.00 pts 47% up · n 15 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.66 pts 27% up · n 15 · normal -0.01 pts | +1.04 pts 53% up · n 15 · normal -0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.10 pts 56% up · n 9 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.65 pts 70% up · n 10 · normal -0.20 pts | -0.05 pts 50% up · n 10 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-03-20 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +69.8%
- 2008-10-06 · true for 189 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.2%
- 2003-02-12 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +40.7%
- 2002-09-24 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.2%
- 2002-07-19 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.2%
- 2001-09-19 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.0%
- 1987-11-30 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.6%
- 1987-10-19 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 1974-08-14 · true for 88 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.6%
- 1970-05-21 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +40.0%
- 1940-05-21 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.5%
- 1937-10-05 · true for 234 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.1%
- 1933-02-06 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +82.4%
- 1930-06-11 · true for 714 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -38.2%
- 1929-10-29 · true for 60 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.1%
- 15 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about stock markets
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- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 5% in a week?
- What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
- What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
- What happens when the S&P 500 hits an all-time high?
- What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
- What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?
- What happens after the Dow falls 5% in a week?