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What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
It has happened 27 times since 1928. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 19 of 27 times, with a median move of +13.4%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.4%, up 69% of the time.
S&P 500 up more than 20% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.8% 70% up · n 27 · normal +1.1% | +13.4% 70% up · n 27 · normal +9.4% | +26.6% 73% up · n 26 · normal +25.8% |
| Gold | +1.6% 57% up · n 14 · normal 0.0% | +6.1% 53% up · n 15 · normal +2.9% | +3.0% 50% up · n 14 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | +3.1% 57% up · n 14 · normal 0.0% | +3.4% 60% up · n 15 · normal 0.0% | +27.7% 71% up · n 14 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.01 pts 47% up · n 15 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.47 pts 67% up · n 15 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.39 pts 57% up · n 14 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | 0.00 pts 44% up · n 25 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.04 pts 48% up · n 27 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.67 pts 62% up · n 26 · normal -0.03 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.10 pts 53% up · n 15 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.35 pts 31% up · n 16 · normal -0.20 pts | -1.40 pts 13% up · n 15 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-07-07 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.4%
- 2020-06-11 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.5%
- 2009-10-07 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.5%
- 2009-05-28 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.1%
- 2003-06-05 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.4%
- 1998-11-30 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.4%
- 1997-07-02 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.8%
- 1991-04-08 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.1%
- 1987-03-23 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.7%
- 1987-02-17 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.2%
- 1982-10-08 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.3%
- 1980-07-17 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.7%
- 1975-02-20 · true for 30 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.2%
- 1970-10-05 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.6%
- 1963-01-22 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.7%
- 1948-06-08 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.2%
- 1943-03-30 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +3.1%
- 1938-06-27 · true for 50 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.3%
- 1935-11-15 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.1%
- 1935-06-10 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +44.4%
- 1934-01-18 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.6%
- 1933-05-01 · true for 85 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.1%
- 1932-08-08 · true for 67 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +39.8%
- 1931-03-17 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -53.9%
- 1930-03-21 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -25.6%
- 1930-02-11 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -25.9%
- 1929-08-19 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -32.0%
- 27 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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